Talk about putting your money where your mouth is. A British mystery gambler has made what is believed to be the largest political bet in history — and he bet it all on red. All five million dollars of it. Yep, the former banker bet $5 million that Donald Trump will win the 2020 presidential election. And if he’s right, he could get a $15 million payout.
As reported by The Sun, the wealthy former banker used private bookmakers registered on the Caribbean island of Curacao to place the monster bet at odds of 37/20. The anonymous high roller reportedly consulted with “Trump camp insiders” before making the “yuuge” bet that could net him a 285 percent return — nearly $15 million.
A UK betting industry source told the paper: “Word of this bet has done the rounds and we think it’s the biggest ever made on politics.” While betting on elections is illegal in the U.S., it has long been popular in the UK and other countries. As is the case with everything else “yuuge” about this election, total betting on the Trump v. Biden “steel cage match” was expected to exceed $1 billion, worldwide.
— New York Post (@nypost) November 3, 2020
According to the website OddsChecker on Tuesday morning, bookmakers have “drastically” cut Trump’s odds in recent days, with sportsbooks increasing the president’s chances of winning — literally overnight.
America went to sleep knowing Joe Biden was the sportsbooks favorite to win the 2020 US election, that hasn’t changed, but the gap between Donald Trump and Biden has been severely narrowed overnight.
Yesterday, Joe Biden’s 2020 election odds implied he had a 65.2% chance of winning the 2020 election, that percentage has now dropped to 61.9% chance.
Donald Trump will likely wake up with a spring in his step as more and more people think he could stay for another term. Trump’s odds on Monday implied he had just a 34.8% chance of winning the 2020 election. However, his current odds imply he’s got 40% chance.
In 2016, the sportsbooks only gave Donald Trump a 20% chance of winning on the day before election day.
Sam Eaton, the site’s head of marketing, told the Sun that the sudden change in odds represented a “remarkable” swing.
“The 2020 election is following a very similar betting pattern to the one we witnessed back in 2016. The closer we got to Election Day, the more money came for Donald Trump.
“A lot of part-time gamblers will opt to wager on the election today, and naturally given the bigger returns on Trump, they will likely side with the current president.”
Rasmussen writer Dr. Brian Joondeph warned, “betting against Trump is a losing bet.”
“Betting against Trump is a losing bet, as the last five years demonstrated, especially when he is confident and, on a roll, as he is now.
“Trumpmentum Rolling Toward Election Day.”
“Trumpmentum”? I like it.
New Analysis & Commentary from Dr. Brian Joondeph, aka @retinaldoctor
"Betting against Trump is a losing bet, as the last five years demonstrated, especially when he is confident and, on a roll, as he is now."
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 31, 2020
Bookmaker Paddy Power told the Sun that 93% of wagers had been on Trump over the previous 24 hours, according to the Sun, while Jessica O’Reilly of Ladbrokes said that “even at the eleventh hour,” betters are moving towards Trump.
“Biden looks home and hosed according to the bookies and pollsters, but even at the eleventh hour, punters are continuing to back Trump at the odds on offer.”
Apparently, “hosed” has a different meaning in Great Britain than it does in America. By U.S. definition, let’s hope Jessica O’Reilly is right. There is nothing I’d rather see than Joe Biden getting completely hosed — hopefully before the clock strikes midnight.
For other recent election news, please check out the following RedState articles.