Nate Silver Hedges His 2020 Bet

Nate Silver became a household name in 2012 when he accurately predicted the outcome of the 2012 election.  To be honest, his data analysis was second to none, and he really crushed it.  I was quite impressed and a bit in awe.


That shiny facade has now faded to reveal that Nate, though a good guy, really is just throwing darts at a dartboard.  His downright laughable results in 2016 and his steady back peddle to the right in 2020 shows that Nate is lost his mojo.  I will be honest.  I could be wrong, tomorrow will tell, but returns thus far do not tell the tale of some Joe Biden landslide or even a 70% chance of him winning, let alone a 90% certainty.

Now today, the day before the 2020 election, Nate offers a huge hedge for his 2020 prediction.  If Trump, wins 3 states that he won in 2016, the race moves to a 50/50 chance.  Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, three states that remain some of the closest in the polls and have slid in favor of Trump by several point margins over the last several weeks, are the states to which he refers.  Trump won Florida by 1.2 points in 2016, Georgia by 5.1, and North Carolina by 3.6.  These were not states that were won by the slimmest of margins.


The good news is we should know relatively early in the night tomorrow whether or not Nate’s 50/50 number is accurate as all the polls in these states close early.  My guess is that a Trump win in these three states will begin to usher in the talk of a Trump repeat. One thing is for sure:  Nate Silver has a lot of his credibility running on a Biden win tomorrow.


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