The Senate voted 51-49 late Saturday night to advance President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) to the next phase of consideration. After several hours of negotiation and last-minute arm-twisting by Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Vice President JD Vance, we're now looking at what could be a protracted process of Democratic delays, Republican infighting, and political theater that stretches well into next week.
READ MORE: US Senate Holds Procedural Vote on Trump 'One Big Beautiful Bill'
This bill is far from perfect. In fact, parts of it are downright problematic from a conservative standpoint. But if Republicans fail to pass it, we're looking at the largest tax increase in American history when the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expires at the end of this year.
Sometimes governing means choosing between imperfect options and catastrophic consequences. This is one of those times.
The Reality Check: What Happens If We Do Nothing
If the OBBB fails and we allow the 2017 tax cuts to expire, the average American family faces a $1,700 tax hike – the equivalent of nine weeks of groceries. For families with children, it's worse: 40 million families will see their Child Tax Credit slashed in half.
For small businesses, the backbone of our economy, we're talking about 26 million small businesses facing a 43.4% top tax rate if the pass-through deduction expires. That's not a policy choice; that's economic sabotage.
The bill permanently extends the 2017 Trump tax cuts and adds critical provisions like no tax on tips, overtime pay, and car loan interest for American-made vehicles. It expands the small business deduction to 23 percent and makes it permanent, potentially creating over a million new Main Street jobs annually.
An Imperfect Bill
The bill has serious problems that can't be ignored. The Congressional Budget Office estimates it will add $2.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, even with spending cuts included. That's a problem for anyone who believes in fiscal responsibility.
The Tax Foundation found that economic growth will only pay for about 22 percent of the tax cuts, meaning we're not growing our way out of this deficit hole. For fiscal conservatives, that's a bitter pill to swallow.
The legislation includes a ten-year ban on all state-level AI regulations, which may sound good in theory but could prevent states from regulating AI-generated content and deepfakes. Sometimes federalism means letting states be laboratories of democracy, even when we don't like their experiments.
The process was flawed too. The final text wasn't available until 10:40 p.m. the night before the House vote, and it passed about eight hours later. That's not how serious legislation should be handled, and at least two Republicans have admitted they missed objectionable parts when they voted.
Why We Must Pass It Anyway
Despite these legitimate concerns, the alternative is worse. The Tax Foundation analysis shows that extending the TCJA would increase long-run GDP by 1.1 percent and raise wages for American workers. The bill would prevent tax increases on 62 percent of taxpayers that would otherwise occur.
This isn't just about numbers on a spreadsheet. It's about families gaining up to $13,300 more in take-home pay and workers seeing wage increases of more than $11,000. It's about giving American families breathing room in an economy that's still recovering from years of government-induced inflation.
The bill also includes $175 billion for immigration and border enforcement and increases the military budget by $150 billion. For a conservative, those are priorities worth supporting, even if the overall package isn't perfect.
The Political Reality
Governing in Washington D.C. with slim majorities means you rarely get everything you want, and waiting for the perfect bill often means getting nothing at all. Senate Majority Leader John Thune can only afford to lose three Republican votes, and we've already seen Senators Rand Paul and Thom Tillis vote against advancing the bill. Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley became the first GOP holdout to announce he will back the latest form of the bill despite previously expressing concerns about Medicaid cuts, showing that deals can still be struck.
The Senate parliamentarian has already ruled against key Medicaid provisions, forcing Republicans to scramble for alternative revenue sources. The parliamentarian has systematically stripped away multiple provisions, including language to bar non-citizens from receiving SNAP benefits and key border security enforcement measures. Every day this drags on makes it less likely we'll meet Trump's July 4th deadline, and less likely we'll have the votes to pass anything at all.
Sen. Ron Johnson called the bill "completely unsustainable" from a fiscal standpoint, and he's not wrong. But Johnson and other deficit hawks need to answer this question: What's their alternative plan for preventing the largest tax increase in American history?
The reality is that Thune is now convening small working groups to hash out key components of the bill, trying to build momentum after a tough week of setbacks. This is governing—messy, imperfect, but necessary.
Getting It Done
The One Big Beautiful Bill is a flawed piece of legislation that reflects the messy reality of governing with narrow majorities and competing priorities. It spends too much, doesn't cut enough, and includes provisions that have no business being in a budget reconciliation bill.
But it also prevents a massive tax increase on working families, provides critical support for small businesses, funds border security, and maintains America's competitive edge in the global economy. Sometimes the choice isn't between good and bad – it's between imperfect and catastrophic.
The Senate now faces an unlimited series of amendment votes that could stretch into later this week. Democrats will try to delay, and Republicans will try to improve the bill around the margins. But at the end of the day, the fundamental choice remains the same: pass an imperfect bill that prevents tax increases and supports economic growth, or allow gridlock to deliver the largest tax hike in American history.
For all its flaws, the One Big Beautiful Bill is better than the alternative of doing nothing. And in politics, sometimes that's the best you can hope for.
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