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Being the first candidate out the gate, and the one who is still leading most of, if not all of, the field so far means that people are going to be doing a lot of speculating about you. And, of course, no man gets more speculation about anything than former president Donald J. Trump.

Today’s speculation is his potential choice of running mate, and Axios has learned that it seems to be down to four women – with Kari Lake leading the way.

Former President Trump is strongly considering picking a female running mate — and sees Kari Lake as a model for his vice-presidential pick, according to people who discussed the topic with him.

Why it matters: Trump is already gaming out the general election in November 2024 — and knows he has a massive weakness with the white suburban women he would need to beat President Biden.

Lake, a former TV anchor who lost her race for Arizona governor in November, meets Trump’s most important qualification for a No. 2

That qualification? Her unfailing loyalty to him and his cause.

After her speech at CPAC March 3, Kari Lake kissed a picture of Donald Trump: pic.twitter.com/7kGQZB79Yf

— Howard Mortman (@HowardMortman) March 7, 2023

But, while Lake has seemingly been auditioning for the role ever since she lost her bid for governor in November 2022, her personality shift also creates a problem for her:

But Trump friends say Lake carries a big downside: He wants no risk that his running mate could outshine him. Lake would be assumed to be angling for president from the day she entered the White House. She made a political trip to Iowa last month.

The other names mentioned in the piece are Nikki Haley (currently one of Trump’s opponents in the GOP primary), Arkansas Gov. Sarah Sanders (who reportedly declined to endorse Trump when he asked her to – a claim he refutes), and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem.

If these reports are true, then Trump understands his biggest weakness is with women, particularly in the suburbs, and his desire to pick a woman to be his running mate is a reflection of that political strategy. But at the same time, it’s also a sign that he feels extremely confident in his chances to be having this conversation now, when the field isn’t fully set. That confidence may be justified, but it could just as easily be a major mistake.

What it sounds like Trump is looking for in a running mate, aside from a particular gender, is exactly what he had in 2016. Mike Pence was “unfailingly loyal” and “bland enough that [he didn’t] steal any spotlight.” That makes Lake a bigger risk than the others because it’s clear she is politically ambitious.

There is another aspect to this story that needs to be noted, however.

Have you noticed that Trump’s campaign is the only one having all these leaks about his political strategy? Last week, it was his plan of attack for handling Ron DeSantis. This week, it’s his choice for Vice President. No one else is suffering from leaks like this. No other candidate (or potential candidate) is having their inner workings constantly leaked to the media.

There’s a reason for this. It’s that confidence I referenced above. Trump and his team are so confident that they believe his plans being out there will put other candidates on the defensive. There is no one on the team, however, that seems to be capable of 1) thinking that letting your opponents know what you’re going to do is actually a bad idea and 2) noticing that no one is actually going on the defensive with any of this because they’re all ignoring Trump.

Maybe the leaks are the team’s way of trying to get the other candidates to notice him or respond to him, but so far, none of it seems to be working. The Trump team is just dropping all their strategy into the media and hoping it looks like they have so many plans, and the best plans at that. But really, it just comes across as kind of a desperate plea for attention.