The Last Interesting Data Point Before the Election

AP Photo/Matt Slocum

It is impossible to say what is going to happen today. The data that we have access to tends to point toward this being Joe Biden’s day. That could be the case, though a narrowing in the polls makes this more of a toss-up than anyone would have originally guessed.

Over the past few weeks, I have been very pessimistic about President Donald Trump’s chances of winning. I don’t want to see Biden win, but I haven’t seen much from the Trump campaign that made me think they were on the right path. But in interacting with a lot of people over the past few weeks, especially here in south Louisiana, I have realized that there is a line of attack Republicans started but perhaps did not play up enough. It is anecdotal data, but it is not something that can or should be ignored at this point. It was in 2016, and that got us where we are now.

There are nearly 10 million oil and gas jobs in the U.S., and there is a very noticeable fear among those working in the industry that many of those jobs could disappear under a Biden presidency. Loads of industrial jobs, worked by blue collar workers, feel the same way. They are afraid of what the far left is going to try to do to their jobs at a time when the economy is already very weakened due to COVID-related economic shutdowns.

If Democrats are as intent on destroying the energy sector as they come across, then that would be really bad news for the American economy. But perception is everything in politics, and blue collar workers in the United States see pretty clearly what is going on. In 2016, Trump won key states that would normally have gone Democrat. There is very good reason to believe that they are still nervous about Biden, who normally connects better with them but is also attached to the Obama legacy and the far left that has been slowly taking over the party’s talking points.

Over the course of the past week, I have watched Democrats turn cautiously pessimistic and Trump allies begin to appear less frantic behind the scenes. I can’t say for sure what is causing this shift, nor can I say if it is justified or not. But, what I can say is that this race is too close to call.