If the 2020 presidential election were held right now, President Donald Trump is sunk.
You can argue it. You can claim the polls are garbage. But they weren’t wrong in 2020. The margin that Hillary Clinton was supposed to win by is roughly what she got in the popular vote. That race was close, but her campaign’s inability to seal the deal (or open a deal) in certain key states gave the win to Trump.
The polling right now does not favor Trump. Pollsters have fixed what they got wrong in 2020, largely by focusing now on state results rather than national results. What’s clear is that Trump is struggling, and there is nothing really coming out of his campaign that offers any sort of coherent message.
The Tulsa rally was nothing short of an embarrassment. Believe the excuses the campaign threw out if you want, but the fact is that his campaign promised massive crowds for a highly-anticipated and televised rally and they didn’t deliver. Trump was understandably furious and heads should definitely roll for it.
The campaign’s lack of coherent messaging has been happening for weeks. I mentioned it two weeks ago and frankly little has changed about what he’s doing. He’s still chasing after every issue he can bring up and trying to chase outrages to stir up his base rather than stick to a general platform and push it as hard as he can against the built-in biases of the media and the Democrats.
But, with all the rejoicing that Trump’s enemies are taking part in and with every rise they can get out of him going out into the open for the world to see, the fact of the matter is that the election is not being held today. We still have four months before the poll numbers should be creating a major panic. Four months until a lack of messaging will really hurt him.
At this moment, the Trump team needs to fire some people and restructure. He needs a team that isn’t led by sycophants but professionals who helped him pull out the win in 2016. Whatever the campaign is doing right now, it’s not effective and some heads have to roll.
There are some things that could help Trump. For example, we are still seeing signs of an economic recovery – even a V-shaped one at that. We are also seeing Joe Biden continue to make some mistakes that make him look very mentally out of it. We have chaos in our streets that will force people to actually choose between law and order or continuing unrest. We have Democrats who are still itching to go as far left as possible, thinking that somehow won’t scare away moderate voters.
Several of these things, and the offshoots from them, can be very helpful to Trump if they play out just right AND if he can capitalize on them correctly. He can’t do that while unfocused, though, and that is why you need someone to again try to pull him back from Twitter and get him back on a general script. Trump isn’t just an outsider here to shake up the system anymore. He IS the system now, and he has to prove to the American people why his system is better than whatever system Biden will be in charge of.
It’s gotta start now if he wants to win. If he doesn’t find the right path soon, the numbers in the polls won’t change all that much.