ABC News/Washington Post Poll Has Trump in the Lead (Barely)

Virtually tied, Donald Trump’s had his last, best chance to get ahead of Hillary Clinton after this weekend. The ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll was taken from October 27-30, and it is the first time since May that Trump has had a lead over Hillary in it. He leads her 46-45, well within the margin of error (+/- 2.5 points).

The tracking poll finds little shift in Clinton’s overall support following news of the FBI’s renewed look at Clinton e-mails, but strong enthusiasm among her supporters fell behind Trump in combined Saturday and Sunday interviews. By 53 to 43 percent, more Trump supporters say they are “very enthusiastic” about him, compared with Thursday and Friday when Trump’s edge was negligible (53 percent vs. 51 percent).

Voter enthusiasm has been in short supply for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump through the fall campaign and continues to lag excitement about candidates on the ballot four years ago. At this point in 2012, 64 percent of Obama supporters said they were “very enthusiastic” about him; Romney was only narrowly behind at 61 percent.

The enthusiasm level is the killer here. The Clinton team had figured the email drama was over after June, but James Comey’s letter on Friday reopened old wounds and left them festering over the weekend. Trump supporters haven’t really grown in enthusiasm, however. The dip is pretty much all due to Hillary’s plummeting enthusiasm.

That’s not a good sign. The data that is out right now suggests Hillary is winning the early vote, and while that is a large chunk of the eventual turnout, the actual election day is going to have a lot more voters turning out who are aware of the new FBI development. That’s not good for Hillary, and it could be enough to make this an incredibly tight race.

Hillary is still heavily favored to win, and this is just one poll showing Trump has the slight edge over her. It also doesn’t take into account the electoral college, which still overwhelmingly favors Clinton.