The 2026 U.S. Senate primary races in the Tar Heel State haven't been as exciting as those in Texas have been, and there are two big reasons for that: 1) The lead Republican and Democrat candidates in North Carolina don't have much opposition, and 2) With all due respect to Chairman Whatley, there's not a "big personality" candidate in North Carolina on either side - certainly not a candidate who can hold a candle to Jasmine Crockett.
Yes, we expect that Michael Whatley will easily capture the Republican nomination, and that former Gov. Roy Cooper of the Down East Mafia will be the Democrat nominee - and Sister Toldjah and I can assure you that we won't allow that race to be boring once we get to the heart of the general election campaign.
But that doesn't mean that there aren't races to watch in the battle for the House of Representatives, especially after redistricting. Polls close at 7:30 PM Eastern, and you can track the returns in the interactive maps at the bottom of the page.
NC-01
Incumbent Democrat Rep. Don Davis is considered one of the most endangered House Democrats after the Republican-led legislature redrew North Carolina's congressional district lines. Before redistricting, it was a seat President Trump carried by about 3 percentage points in 2024, but now it's a seat he carried by nearly 12 points.
From our friends at Decision Desk HQ:
Retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout, who lost to Davis by about 2 points in 2024, is one of the five Republicans seeking the GOP nomination here. Her main primary opponents look to be Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck and state Sen. Bobby Hanig.
Buckhout certainly has a financial edge. She loaned her campaign $2 million, most of the nearly $2.2 million she had raised as of Feb. 11, dwarfing the $345,000 and $315,000 raised by Hanig and Buck, respectively. Buckhout has also benefited from close to $1 million in outside spending support. This includes more than $500,000 from American Mission, a super PAC associated with AI, which has run ads touting Buckhout as “the Trump conservative North Carolina needs.”
Still, the only public poll of this race suggests Buckhout does not have the nomination locked up. An early February survey from Emerson College/WNCT/CBS17 found Buckhout leading Buck just 26%-22%, with Hanig back at 11%. North Carolina election rules only require a candidate to win more than 30% to avoid a runoff, so a second round of voting is unlikely here.
NC-04
The 4th District is one of North Carolina's most liberal, containing the People's Republic of Chapel Hill, and increasingly radical Durham County, and the western parts of Wake County inhabited by affluent white Chardonnay-swilling women. There's little chance that a Republican could win this in the general, but we could end up with a new Squad member if progressives get their way in the primary.
Again, the analysis from our friends at DDHQ:
Rep. Valerie Foushee faces a stern challenge from Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, who lost to Foushee in the 2022 primary for a previous version of this district. With the Democratic Party’s ongoing debate over support for Israel, Allam has targeted Foushee’s past backing from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a major bogeyman in progressive circles. Allam, who is 32 years old, is also making a generational case in her progressive challenge against the 69-year old Foushee that could resonate amid the Democrats’ post-2024 debates over candidate age.
Foushee and Allam have raised similar amounts — a bit less than $600,000 — but have both benefited from ample outside spending. As of March 1, groups had spent $2.4 million supporting Foushee and $2.1 million backing Allam or opposing the incumbent. Jobs and Democracy, a super PAC backed by AI company Anthropic that promotes an appropriately regulated AI, has spent $1.6 million supporting Foushee. Allam’s biggest proponent ($1.1 million spent) has been American Priorities, a super PAC that aims to counter the influence of pro-Israel groups in Democratic primaries. We haven’t seen any public polling of this race, but all signs point to a highly competitive race.
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