Super Tuesday Exit Poll: Abortion Is the Top Issue for Dems; Biden Border Crisis Is Top Issue for GOP

AP Photo/Ben Gray

An exit poll of Super Tuesday voters conducted by Decision Desk HQ found predictable differences between Democrats and Republicans regarding the issues they are most concerned about in this election.

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The poll surveyed absentee, early, and day-of voters. According to the poll:

  • Democratic voters prioritized abortion with 27% citing it as their top issue; the economy ranked second at 25% and education ranked third at 11%.
  • Despite significant pundit-class anticipation of progressive voters’ responses to President Biden’s stance on the Israel/Gaza conflict, only 9% of Democratic voters cited foreign policy as their top issue – ranking it #5 overall.
  • Republican voters prioritized immigration, with 44% citing it as their top issue, followed by the economy at 28%.
  • Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley continues to perform better than former President Trump among self-identified Independent and Democratic voters.

These findings show that President Biden doesn't have to walk as fine a line with Hamas supporters as he thought and show the failure of the whole "Uncommitted" movement. As we've seen repeatedly, these radicals are loud but not as ubiquitous as they'd like us to think they are.

It's not surprising that Democratic Super Tuesday voters' top issue was abortion, but what will be more important for the general election is how that issue ranks among independent voters and potential swing voters, and Democratic Super Tuesday voters in a year where there's not a contest at the top of the ticket aren't those voters. What'll be problematic for Democrats is the 25 percent of primary voters who said the economy is their biggest issue.

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Some additional interesting findings:

  • Democratic primary voters are more likely than Republican primary voters to say the nation is on the right track. 
    • While 47% of Democratic Primary voters say the nation is on the right track, only 7% of Republican Primary voters agree with this point of view.
  • The starkest point of distinction between Trump and Haley supporters continues to be education.
    • Trump is favored by 76% of voters without a bachelor’s degree and 57% of voters with a bachelor’s degree.
    • Haley is favored by 19% of voters without a bachelor’s degree and 36% of voters with a bachelor’s degree. 

If the findings on the education level of both Trump and Haley supporters are correct, it certainly dispels the stereotype of Trump supporters as uneducated.

Methodology:

This exit poll of N=2,520 Super Tuesday primary voters was conducted February 27 through March 4 for absentee and early voters, and on March 5 for day-of voters. AB/EV surveys were carried out via phone and SMS panels; some day-of voters were polled through QR code-based surveys. Sample sizes were proportionally allocated based on registered voter counts in Super Tuesday states, excluding those holding caucuses (IA, UT, and AK). Adjustments were made to reflect the distribution of early versus day-of voting in the 2020 Super Tuesday elections. Weighting was applied according to the demographic composition of the 2020 Super Tuesday primary voters, ensuring a representative sample. Demographic attributes where weighting was applied include partisan affiliation, education, and gender.

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