The assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump sent shockwaves through America’s political environment as politicians and media reacted to the incident that almost took his life. Coming in the middle of election season, many have speculated that the shooting might boost his chances of defeating President Joe Biden in November.

There can be no doubt that going through an attempt on one’s life is a harrowing ordeal. However, when viewed through a political lens, the incident could be the catalyst for a significant victory if he plays his cards right. 

The attempted assassination occurred just as the Republican Party was getting ready to hold its national convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, which began as scheduled Monday. The shooting was a prelude to what will be a highly anticipated speech in front of Republican voters. Although he initially said after the shooting that we would delay his appearance, the former president then announced that, despite dodging a bullet, he would be present at the event after all.

As was communicated earlier this evening, President Trump is doing well and grateful to law enforcement and first responders for their fast action. President Trump looks forward to joining you all in Milwaukee as we proceed with our convention to nominate him to serve as the 47th President of the United States. As our party's nominee, President Trump will continue to share his vision to Make America Great Again.

How Trump continues to handle the aftermath of the shooting will determine just how much political capital he will gain from it. Being a master showman, this reality is not lost on him. Indeed, even after having a bullet rip through his ear, he had the presence of mind to defiantly and boldly raise his fist to the audience before being carted off the stage by Secret Service agents.

The coming days will be critical for the former president’s campaign. How he addresses the incident at the convention and beyond could cement his chances of winning the election. On the other hand, it could also open him up to criticism for appearing to politicize the attack.

Knowing Trump, he will use this incident to his advantage. To many, the attack reaffirms the reality that he is a target of those who don’t want real change in America, and he will capitalize on that sentiment. Indeed, during the first night of the convention, he made an unannounced appearance. He did not give a speech, but the way he carried himself when he entered the building, appearing to get emotional with a bandage on his right ear said more than words possibly could.

There are a few routes Trump could take when it comes to formulating his messaging strategy. Firstly, he could rail against the Democrats, accusing them of inspiring Thomas Matthew Crooks to take a shot at him. He could paint the incident as the culmination of all the lies and vitriol that Democrats and their close friends and allies in the activist media have hurled at him for nearly a decade.

If he wanted to get a bit more conspiratorial, he could cast the attack as engineered by Deep State forces seeking to keep him out of office. In this vein, Trump might suggest that this incident shows how far the Deep State will go to ensure that they maintain the status quo he seeks to disrupt. He could intimate that if he does not win this election, these forces will be empowered to continue their subjugation of everyday Americans.

On the other hand, the former president might employ what Dilbert creator Scott Adams calls the “high ground maneuver,” in which he appears to rise above the politics of the situation. He might paint the shooter as a troubled young man who lashed out because of his circumstances rather than implying that he was part of a plot or someone who was radicalized by incendiary rhetoric from the left.

Trump could also acknowledge the outpouring of outrage and support coming even from Democrats and Republicans who oppose him. He could reference President Biden calling to check on him after the shooting. This method could make him appear more as a unifier who is trying to lessen the division that has plagued American society for years.

Or Trump could do a mix of both.

Either way, there are advantages and disadvantages to both of these routes.

The former strategy would undoubtedly rile up his base and voters who lean Republican. While it might not appeal to most independents, it could greatly increase his voter enthusiasm and motivate more Republican voters to show up at the polls in November.

By painting the Democrats as the ultimate enemy who will stop at nothing to retain power, some voters might be motivated to show up on Election Day to do their part to stymie the Democratic agenda. For at least some who are still on the fence, the notion that certain forces in government and other institutions would go to these lengths to target a political opponent might just frighten them enough to pull the lever for the former president – even if they are not big fans of his. After all, they are already weaponizing the justice system against him, right?

Conversely, using the high-ground maneuver could actually benefit his campaign even more. By taking a more unifying approach, he could win over even independents who might lean to the left. It could help him project a strong, confident, and calming front that might appeal to those who are even more uncertain about President Biden’s age and cognitive difficulties after his disastrous debate performance. After all, if Trump can signal leadership right after being shot, then he can’t be that bad, can he?

Of course, this method might not be as easy for Trump, who is more used to punching his opponents than extending an olive branch. But given his penchant for showmanship and persuasion, he could pull it off by exercising some discipline.

It is also worth noting that if Trump uses this approach, it won’t necessarily mean that fingers won’t be pointed at the left and the Deep State. Even if the former president does not use these talking points, we can be sure that right-leaning media (including myself) will. The reality is that the left did contribute to the political environment that leads to political violence, and folks like myself have no problem highlighting it.

All in all, the second route would likely be the most beneficial for Trump. But one thing everyone knows about the former president is that he’s unpredictable, so I suppose we won’t find out what he will do until Tuesday.

To celebrate RedState’s 20th Anniversary, for this week only, many of our RedState VIP articles and features are coming out from behind the paywall. To enjoy access to exclusive VIP articles – ad-free – for the entire year, become a VIP member today! And this week, we’re offering 60% off, our biggest discount ever, when you use code “RS20.”