It seems that ever since House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) took up the gavel, there has been speculation about what could happen if he runs afoul of the GOP’s conservative wing. Even now, after Congress passed yet another bloated trillion-dollar omnibus spending package, there is talk of potentially removing him as they did with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy last year.
In fact, one GOP lawmaker has already introduced the motion to vacate as a warning against Johnson, who is playing a careful balancing act to project a cohesiveness among House Republicans.
Speaking of McCarthy, the former speaker recently indicated during an interview that Johnson doesn’t have anything to worry about. He’s probably right for a myriad of reasons.
During an interview on “Face the Nation,” McCarthy advised Johnson: “Do not be fearful of a motion to vacate,” indicating that his situation when he served as speaker was unique. The host asked about the resignation of Rep. Mike Gallagher and other Republicans and whether it is the “chaos within your caucus” that is causing the departures. McCarthy responded:
I think it's causing some of it, yes. The difficulty here is when you allow eight Republicans to join with all the Democrats to determine who can run the House when 96% decide one way, it creates some chaos. They've got to move through this, put the country first, and be able to move on. I think they're able to do that. Speaker Johnson is doing the very best job he can. It's a difficult situation. But look, the one advice I would give to the conference and to the speaker is, do not be fearful of a motion to vacate. I do not think they could do it again. That was surely based on Matt Gaetz trying to stop an ethics complaint. I don't think the Democrats will go along with it, too. Focus on the country, focus on the job you're supposed to do, and actually do it fearlessly. Just move forward.
"I do not think they could do it again," former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy says about the motion filed to oust his successor, Mike Johnson. McCarthy alleges his own ouster last year "was sheerly based on Matt Gaetz trying to stop an ethics complaint," which Gatez has denied. pic.twitter.com/izf7HkKnhi
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) March 24, 2024
McCarthy’s comments come just days after Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) filed a motion to vacate after what many perceived to be Johnson’s capitulation to Democrats on the spending package and other pieces of legislation. She indicated that she doesn’t intend to force a vote on the motion just yet; she stated that it was only a warning to the current speaker. Others have indicated that House Republicans could move to oust Johnson if he gives in to Democrats on sending more aid to Ukraine.
It is 2024, and anything could happen, including Republicans moving to strip Johnson of his position. However, from where I sit, McCarthy is probably right: They wouldn’t dare make such a politically inept move with the 2024 elections less than nine months away.
When Republicans ousted McCarthy, it triggered a national circus that went on for weeks as the GOP attempted to nominate and elect someone to fill the position. After numerous attempts, they finally settled on Johnson. But having taken the nation through a long, drawn-out production, they made themselves look like an unserious, chaotic party. The political theater did not go over well with Americans still suffering from exorbitant grocery prices, crime, and other problems.
Secondly, going through the process of selecting yet another speaker would erode the respect necessary for effective leadership in the lower chamber. If House Republicans can’t even hold on to a speaker while they control the chamber, how can they be trusted with any other aspects of governing?
Lastly, another Speaker Saga would alienate voters who are not exactly satisfied with how President Joe Biden has performed. Even if they elect former President Donald Trump, it does not mean they will allow Republicans to continue controlling the House or the Senate. Repeating last year’s fiasco would only cement perceptions that the GOP is not up to the task of leading.
So, in light of all this, even the Republican leadership has to recognize that they are stuck with Johnson whether they like him or not. Frankly, the party just doesn’t have enough political capital left to pull off such a move in an election season. Of course, I could easily be wrong. After all, how often have we seen the GOP snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?
