Did Putin Bite off More Than He Can Chew?

Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

It has been about 10 days since Russia invaded Ukraine. While Russia’s military is advancing further into the country, it is clear that all is not going according to President Vladimir Putin’s plan. While Moscow has made progress in its efforts against Ukraine, it has also experienced a series of significant setbacks.

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The Washington Examiner recently published a report detailing some of Russia’s mistakes in its endeavor to overthrow Ukraine’s government. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall during a speech at the Air Force Association’s annual conference on Thursday stated that Putin has “made a very, very serious miscalculation.”

He said the Russian president “overestimated the capacity of his own military” and “severely underestimated the global reaction the invasion of Ukraine would provoke.” He also did not take into account the “will and courage of the people of Ukraine.”

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby made similar remarks on Wednesday, noting that the Russian offensive against the capital city of Kyiv has been “stalled.” The official explained that their troops “have been surprised by the stiff resistance that they are facing by the Ukrainians” and that their soldiers are dealing with fuel and food shortages.

The Washington Examiner noted:

One aspect of the fighting that has remained unexplained is the lack of Russian control over the airspace above Ukraine. Russia has 1,511 combat aircraft, while Ukraine has fewer than 100, according to FlightGlobal’s 2022 World Air Forces directory.

“We’re seeing the same sort of activity in the air,” the senior official said. “There’s a certain risk-averse behavior. They are not necessarily willing to take high risks with their own aircraft and their own pilots, and of course, we’re seeing that on the ground in the fairly slow and stodgy progress that they have made.”

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Ukraine has also benefited from other countries sending anti-air and anti-tank weapons. It has helped them keep Russian forces at bay and prevented them from taking control of Kyiv. NATO, while trying to stay out of the affair, has still provided military resources to the country.

But Russia is not only facing obstacles from the outside. It is also dealing with internal opposition to military hostilities. Liberty Nation spoke with Christopher Donnelly, a specialist advisor to the British House of Commons Defence Committee. He explained:

“Like all tyrants, the thing Putin fears most is revolt by his own people. The immense efforts taken by both the Russian Army and the state security organizations to prevent the Russian people learning about what is happening in Ukraine is evidence of how vulnerable the regime thinks it is to their population being exposed to the truth. If Russian casualties were to increase dramatically, and images of Russian soldiers brutalizing the very people Putin claims are no different from Russians themselves were to spread in from Ukraine, then the social pressure in Russia could reach bursting point.”

Putin seems to recognize the threat coming from the Russian populace, which might not be amenable to seeing dead Russian soldiers. He recently blocked Twitter and Facebook, ostensibly to prevent the citizenry from learning details about the conflict. Yahoo! News reported:

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In a written statement, Russia’s media regulator Roskomnadzor said on Friday that Facebook, whose parent company is called Meta, had violated federal law by restricting access to Russian state-owned accounts, which the regulator said violated “fundamental human rights and freedoms, as well as the rights and freedoms of Russian citizens.”

The report continued:

Social media postings depicting the horrors of the war in Ukraine and the bravery of its citizens and President Volodymyr Zelensky have helped sway world opinion staunchly against Russian forces. But Friday’s actions to further restrict access to information about the conflict may prevent Russian citizens from receiving a fuller picture of what is unfolding.

Another indicator that Putin faces resistance from inside is the fact that alleged attempts to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have failed. The Kremlin has reportedly made three attempts on his life. But he was able to avoid assassination because anti-war elements in Russia’s Federal Security Service tipped him off to the attacks.

These are only a few of the setbacks that Russia has faced. Of course, this does not mean Putin will fail to overthrow Ukraine’s government. Indeed, it is not easy to predict how this situation will pan out. But one thing is clear: If Russia does succeed, it could come at a cost that is greater than it is prepared to pay.

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