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Gallup Poll Reveals Electrifying News for the GOP

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

Things seem to be looking even better for the Republican Party. A recent Gallup poll analyzing party affiliation revealed American voters have made a remarkable departure from the norm, and it is an encouraging sign for the GOP, which is focused on regaining control of both chambers of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections.

The Gallup poll revealed that a higher percentage of Americans eschewed the donkey and have gone the way of the elephant at the end of 2021. The polling company explained:

On average, Americans’ political party preferences in 2021 looked similar to prior years, with slightly more U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic (46%) than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican (43%).

However, the general stability for the full-year average obscures a dramatic shift over the course of 2021, from a nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter to a rare five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter.

The report continued, detailing how party identification progressed over 2021:

In the first quarter of 2021, 49% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, while 40% identified as Republicans or leaned Republican. In the second quarter, 49% were Democrats or Democratic leaners, and 43% were Republicans and Republican leaners. In the third quarter, 45% were Democrats and Democratic leaners, and were 44% Republicans and Republican leaners. In the fourth quarter, 42% were Democrats and Democratic leaners, and 47% were Republicans and Republican leaners.

These results are significant because this particular poll tends to consistently show a higher percentage of Americans identifying as Democrats. Indeed, the authors noted:

The GOP has held as much as a five-point advantage in a total of only four quarters since 1991. The Republicans last held a five-point advantage in party identification and leaning in early 1995, after winning control of the House of Representatives for the first time since the 1950s. Republicans had a larger advantage only in the first quarter of 1991, after the U.S. victory in the Persian Gulf War led by then-President George H.W. Bush.

Gallup’s report indicated that the shift is in line with President Joe Biden’s approval ratings. While entering office with mostly positive ratings at the beginning of 2021, Biden experienced a sharp downturn after the botched withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan late last year. The COVID-19 pandemic has also contributed to his plummeting numbers. “A summer surge of infections tied to the delta variant of the coronavirus made it clear the pandemic was not over in the U.S., and Biden’s approval ratings began to sag,” the author wrote.

While the results are positive for the GOP, the report does provide a caveat:

The GOP advantage may be starting to ease, however, as Gallup’s latest monthly estimate, from December, showed the two parties about even — 46% Republican/Republican leaning and 44% Democratic/Democratic leaning.

Another significant factor in this equation is that the shifts occurred among both those who identify with their party and Independents who lean Democrat or Republican. The report noted:

Between the first and fourth quarters, the percentage of Democratic identifiers decreased by two points, while the percentage of Democratic-leaning independents dropped five points. Republican identification increased by three points from the beginning to the end of 2021, while Republican leaners increased by four points.

This, combined with other polls, does not paint a positive picture for Democrats’ chances of surviving in November. A Quinnipiac poll released a few days ago showed Biden is at his lowest approval so far. Even worse, it showed 39 percent of respondents felt Biden is performing worse than they expected.

These findings are significant in light of the upcoming midterm elections. However, they are not surprising. Biden’s performance in office has been abysmal. He and his team have mismanaged almost every problem with which they have been presented. Along with COVID-19 and Afghanistan, the White House has failed to offer viable solutions to Biden’s migrant crisis, inflation, and supply chain issues. To make matters worse, Democrats in Congress have also failed to pass much in the way of meaningful legislation.

Another factor that might explain Biden’s drop in approval is the fact that he has given more than just a wink and a nudge at the far-left progressive crowd, which is completely out of touch with what most Americans want to see from the government. The Hill noted that Biden’s hyperfocus on the massive Build Back Better agenda at the expense of “issues that were of primary importance to voters,” may have caused voters to have a change of heart. “At the point, voters began turning against an administration that they clearly felt had become more attuned to the priorities of progressives, and less focused on addressing the concerns and frustrations of the American electorate,” the author wrote.

Indeed, Biden’s Build Back Better Act is now dead in the water. Democrats have pivoted to pushing two voting rights proposals, but these likely won’t pass either. Now, they are being forced to rely on the passage of the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the COVID-19 relief legislation passed early in 2021. The left is also hoping that constantly fixating on the Jan. 6 riot and using it to smear conservatives and former President Donald Trump will persuade voters to support them.

Unfortunately for the left, none of these elements will matter in the long run. The riot at the Capitol does not impact the lives of everyday Americans like inflation and empty shelves in grocery stores. Moreover, the “Orange Man Bad” strategy will be about as effective as trying to fill a pool with an eyedropper. Trump is not on the ballot this year and will not make a viable boogeyman for the left at this time. Of course, anything could change between now and November, but for now, things are looking quite good for the GOP.