The Trump Effect: 13 States Shift Towards Democrats With Trump As Nominee


Did you ever think you’d hear Nebraska being bandied about as a “toss up” state in a Presidential election? Mitt Romney won the state by 23 points in 2012.

Well thanks to Donald Trump, Nebraska has now gone from a Solid Republican state to a Toss Up in the latest Cook Report scorecard ratings.

That’s not all of it. Twelve other states have shifted as well with Donald Trump becoming the presumptive nominee and the shift is all in favor of the Democrats. Read it and weep:

This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year. Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate – women, millennials, independents and Latinos – make him the initial November underdog.

As a result, we are shifting 13 ratings on our Electoral Vote scorecard, almost all of them favoring Democrats. Our assessments are based on publicly available polling, data on demographic change and private discussions with a large number of pollsters in both parties. Much could change, but undecided voters begin more hostile to Trump than Clinton.

Here is the map and the states as they show now:


Of course, things could change. Trump has shown at times he has good political instincts. The problem is, the media that has helped him is now going to put greater scrutiny on him. He will not be attacking fellow Republicans anymore but a Democrat and that will likely be Hillary Clinton.

I am not confident things will change. The GOP could be headed for a historic defeat.