A new poll out from Public Policy Polling in New Hampshire shows that Donald Trump still has a strong lead among Republican voters. Trump is taking in 28% of the vote. [mc_name name=’Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’R000595′ ] has made a surprising move into second in that poll with 12%. Ben Carson is third with 11% and Ohio Governor John Kasich is in fourth with 10%. Jeb Bush, [mc_name name=’Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’C001098′ ] and Carly Fiorina are at nine, eight and seven percent respectively. An interesting aspect to this poll is Donald Trump loses when he goes head to head. Asked if people would vote for Trump or Fiorina if one had to choose between the two of them, Fiorina tops Trump 47% to 44%. When asked the same question of Trump and [mc_name name=’Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’R000595′ ], Rubio beats Trump 49% to 42%.
Trump is also seeing his negatives go back up:
Trump is by some metrics weaker in New Hampshire than he was when we polled in August though. Then he was at 35% and had a 56/32 favorability rating, now he’s at 28% and has a 48/42 favorability rating. Then he led hypothetical head to head match ups with Ben Carson, [mc_name name=’Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’R000595′ ], and Jeb Bush by an average of 17 points. Now he trails that same trio by an average of 3 points- he still leads Bush by a reduced margin of 49/41 but he trails Carson 48/39 and Rubio 49/42. Additionally he trails Carly Fiorina 47/44. So he’s certainly still well out ahead, but his dominance is not quite what it was.
The big news in this poll however, is the choices Democrats would make if they had a chance to vote for the Republican of their choice:
John Kasich’s campaign seems to be sputtering a little bit. He was in 2nd place at 11% in August and now finds himself in 4th place at a similar 10%. His favorability numbers have dropped from +27 (49/22) to +16 (45/29). He does lead the poll of who Democrats would support for the Republican nomination with 22% to 17% for Donald Trump, 10% for Jeb Bush, 7% for Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina, 5% each for Ben Carson, [mc_name name=’Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’C001098′ ], and [mc_name name=’Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’R000595′ ], and 4% for [mc_name name=’Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’P000603′ ]. But that popularity with Democrats may help explain why Kasich is polling at 1% with voters who identify themselves as ‘very conservative.’
Among Democrats saying they want someone to be the Republican nominee because they actually like the person Kasich gets 34% to 10% each for Christie and Fiorina. Among Democrats saying they want someone to be the Republican nominee because they think it would be easier to defeat that person, Trump gets 50% to 15% for Bush, and 10% for Cruz.
Emphasis mine on the last part of that.
John Kasich is more popular with Democrats than with Republicans in New Hampshire. And there are a lot of Democrats who would like to see Donald Trump as the nominee, largely because they think he will be beaten.
Why is that Democrats like Kasich so much? Because he is so much like them. Forget all of the talk about the “adult in the room” nonsense when it comes to his rabid supporters (there are some Republicans). I think Erick put it best when he wrote in September:
John Kasich is an insufferable douche who thinks Jesus told him to expand government in Ohio, particularly Obamacare, where now costs are going up, government spending is going up (despite what Kasich says), and Kasich has hired Democrats to make him likable. About the only people who like Kasich are the Circle of Jerks who make up the DC-NYC media and are overwhelmingly Democrat. So of course they love the guy who expanded Obamacare.
That about says it all. Here’s hoping Kasich drops out soon for the benefit of the Republican Party.