Japan’s February 8 snap election is quickly approaching. It comes less than half a year after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi — the ideological successor and long-time mentee of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) assumed office.
On January 23, PM Takaichi dissolved the House of Representatives, the 456-member lower house of Japan's legislature. Takaichi is hopeful that by doing so, her LDP — along with coalition partner Japan Innovation Party (JIP), an Osaka-based party — will secure a comfortable majority. She is seeking a mandate from the public.
In a Truth Social post on Thursday, President Trump praised PM Takaichi’s strong leadership, announced the date of her White House visit, and perhaps most importantly, endorsed her.
BREAKING: President Trump endorses Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ahead of Sunday's election. pic.twitter.com/nDTBAMPOAA
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 5, 2026
This election will serve not only as a referendum on PM Takaichi’s performance but also as a referendum on China amid an ongoing diplomatic row between Tokyo and Beijing. While the election carries political risks for Takaichi, the race is likely to be far safer for her and the LDP than many analysts and journalists anticipate. A number of polls are projecting a landslide victory for the LDP.
Public support for Takaichi and her cabinet has remained exceptionally high since October 2025, with a recent slip ahead of the election. Her party’s approval rating, on the other hand, remains low. Takaichi is aiming to leverage her high ratings. Given the broad backing she enjoys, Takaichi is well-positioned to succeed.
A December poll revealed extremely high favorability among young voters for the Takaichi administration — 92.4 percent and 83.1 percent of voters aged 18-29 and 30-39, respectively. Support for her is particularly strong among young women. Her popularity stems from both her personal appeal as a hardworking, determined woman who has risen to the top and economic policies that young voters hope will address stagnant wages and the rising cost of living.
Her cabinet's approval rating has also remained high among individuals in their 40s and 50s as well as seniors, the latter being a core pillar of LDP support with traditionally high voter turnout.
Takaichi has also worked to rebuild the LDP’s conservative base that crumbled under her two predecessors, both of whom are widely regarded as moderates with more accommodationist stances toward China. Many dissatisfied conservative LDP voters had shifted to the Democratic Party for the People, Conservative Party of Japan, and Sanseito.
But popularity among young voters is one thing, and securing their vote is another. Young voters in Japan turn out at much lower rates than older cohorts, so it will be essential for Takaichi and her LDP to mobilize as many young supporters as possible.
Another variable that might complicate the race is the weather. Heavy snowfall across northern and western Japan that has already killed at least 35 people could have a negative impact on voter turnout, especially among less motivated voters, like young people, and those in rural areas, where the LDP derives a substantial amount of its support from.
The China factor is also important to consider. Beijing’s threats aimed at Takaichi boosted her popularity, with her approval rating reaching around 75 percent, according to some polls. This is indicative of broad public support for Takaichi, not just LDP approval. In addition, 56 percent of the public approved of her cabinet's handling of China, while 29 percent disapproved.
Only 13 percent of Japanese hold a favorable opinion of China. Almost 70 percent view Chinese military activity around Japan and in the South China Sea as the top security threat, surpassing North Korea. Following PM Takaichi’s comments in 2025 regarding a potential Japanese response to a Taiwan contingency, the Japanese public’s support for exercising the right to collective self-defense during a Taiwan emergency rose. And a growing number of Japanese citizens are in favor of strengthening the military, in line with the fact that the majority of Japanese support revising the post-war constitution.
Against the backdrop of growing pressure from Beijing, Takaichi’s campaign has emphasized security threats to Japan and her defense policy, branching out from domestic issues. She is tapping into the Japanese public’s concerns about China.
In contrast, the opposition Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA — the merger of Komeito, the LDP’s former coalition partner, and the left-wing Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan) has stressed its commitment to maintaining Japan’s pacifist constitution and pursuing dialogue with Beijing. The CRA, more generally, is having trouble articulating a clear vision, which could hinder not only its efforts to attract new voters but also its ability to unite voters who were recently on opposing sides.
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Former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Takaichi’s predecessor, took a conciliatory approach to dealing with China, one that prioritized dialogue. But it was his weak leadership that allowed China to encroach on Japanese territory. This is fresh in the Japanese electorate's mind.
A landslide LDP victory would send Beijing the message that Japanese voters reject the Chinese Communist Party’s intimidation tactics and firmly stand behind PM Takaichi and her foreign policy. It would signal to Beijing that its coercion campaign has backfired, likely forcing Chinese officials to rethink their strategy.
It would solidify Takaichi’s leadership for the next few years and enable her to pursue a coherent agenda — jumpstarting the economy, bolstering Japan’s defenses, strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance, and possibly revising the constitution down the road. It would bring much-needed stability to Japan’s increasingly volatile political environment.
Takaichi vowed to resign if the LDP and JIP fail to win a majority in the House of Representatives. A very slim majority would entail a much higher risk of political instability and the need to compromise, among other challenges.
Overall, the snap election appears to favor the ruling camp rather than threaten it. Takaichi and her team are centering the election on her leadership and policies in an effort to take advantage of her strong support across different groups of voters. Meanwhile, the opposition CRA is struggling to appeal to the public and may lose more than half of its seats.
Japan is one of the U.S.’s top trading partners and is strategically critical due to its position along the First Island Chain. This election matters — a lot.
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