The world watches closely as the brave people of Iran protest against the Islamic Republic (IR) regime. Regime security forces have killed thousands of people as part of a crackdown on the protests, with an estimate placing the death toll for January 8 and 9 at more than 36,500. President Trump urged Iranians to “keep protesting,” telling them that “help is on the way.”
The USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group have arrived in the Middle East. The Pentagon is surging other military assets to the region as well. Tehran has warned that it will treat a U.S. strike as an “all-out-war.”
According to Al Arabiya, a Saudi state-owned news outlet, the U.S. will conduct a multi-day readiness drill in the Middle East.
The Iranian regime is uneasy and weak. The Ayatollah is reportedly in hiding. At the same time, China is anxious about the potential collapse of the IR. Chinese Communist Party officials are clear-eyed about the Trump administration’s strategy to box them in.
Following President Trump’s comments to reporters on Air Force One about a massive “armada” moving toward Iran, Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, said the following:
China hopes that Iran will maintain national stability and that all parties will cherish peace, exercise restraint, and resolve differences through dialogue.
China’s partnership with the Islamic Republic is shaped by its energy needs and geostrategic interests. In 2021, Beijing and Tehran signed a 25-year agreement to boost cooperation in the areas of energy, infrastructure, technology, and security.
China purchases approximately 90 percent of Iran’s oil, with Iranian crude accounting for almost a quarter of China’s oil imports. This sanctioned oil is sold at heavily discounted prices primarily to Chinese teapot refineries, roughly 25 percent of Beijing’s refining capacity. These refineries are highly dependent on Iranian oil.
Iran’s sanctioned oil makes its way to China via shadow fleet vessels. On Friday, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned another batch of such ships, a number of which transport Iranian oil to “East Asia” — in other words, China. This is part of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign.
Major destabilization — or outright collapse — of the IR regime would carry implications for China’s energy security in the long run. Beijing would have to pay higher prices for oil and petrochemical products. It would have an impact on China’s teapot refineries and plastics industry. There is only so much pressure that China’s struggling economy can withstand.
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Iran also functions as a strategic foothold for China in the Middle East. Tehran and Beijing cooperate with one another to counter American influence in the region. China has helped fuel Iran’s nuclear weapons program and is arming Iran-backed Houthi militants. Chinese weapons have also ended up in the hands of Hamas, and Gaza’s tunnels were reportedly built with the assistance of People’s Liberation Army advisors and engineers.
Since 2019, Iran, China, and Russia have held joint military exercises in the Gulf of Oman, referred to as the Maritime Security Belt by Tehran. China’s increased presence in the Gulf of Oman is significant, given that about 27 percent of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf.
Iran sits at the crossroads of the Middle East, Central Asia, and Europe, making it a key node in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing has a strategic interest in Iran’s ports. In 2025, a railway connecting Iran and China was launched. This new land route cuts freight travel times by half and allows both countries to circumvent sanctions. Iran’s rail authority claims that around 40 Chinese freight trains arrived in the country in 2025, a sharp increase from just seven trains over the past seven years.
At the end of 2025, Iran and Turkey agreed to build a $1.6 billion railway that aims to boost connectivity between Europe and China.
What happens next to the Islamic Republic — whether the administration carries out airstrikes or pursues non-kinetic options — remains to be seen. One thing is certain: Losing Iran would be a setback for China. It makes sense why Beijing is concerned.
Despite its interests in the region, China will not defend Iran. It didn’t do so during Operation Midnight Hammer. It sat by as the elite Delta Force carried out Operation Absolute Resolve to capture Maduro. Beijing has proven that its ability to project power beyond its immediate region is limited and that it would rather avoid the costs associated with direct intervention.
We can all agree that President Trump has mastered the element of surprise. You can count on the administration to make a move when the Islamic Republic and Beijing are least expecting it. It’s a matter of when, not if. Trump draws red lines with dictators for a reason.
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