President Donald Trump speaks about the coronavirus in the James Brady Briefing Room, Monday, March 23, 2020, in Washington, as Attorney General William Barr and Dr. Deborah Birx, White House coronavirus response coordinator, listen. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
This is the 8th in a series of nightly updates regarding Wuhan Virus numbers in these United States.
The trend line in American Wuhan Virus fatalities compared to total infections has shown a small uptick. As of 2359 GMT, March 24, 2020, the U.S. Mortality Rate (M/R) (calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities) was 1.30%. This number had been steadily declining since March 3, when the rate was over 7%. It is still below 2%.
Red State will continue to publish this Wuhan Virus Update showing total reported U.S. Cases and Total U.S. Fatalities from the disease, along with appropriate commentary regarding any observable trends until it’s determined to be no longer useful to our readers.
On the left, this first chart shows the data table, starting February 29, the date of the first reported U.S fatality and continuing until today. On the right, are two graphical representations of the data. The top graph shows the decline of the Mortality Rate. As you can see from the numbers on the left and chart on the upper right, today shows a slight uptick (2/100%) of the M/R from previous reports. My assessment is that the M/R will ultimately continue its downward path until test materials and equipment are fully fielded and the supply chain is well established and fully supportive of demand from the field. At that point, the calculated M/R will reflect what it actually has been all along. At today’s Presidential “Virtual Town Hall” today in the White House Rose Garden, Dr. Birx made an important point, “In the last 8 days, we’ve done more tests than South Korea did in 8 weeks.” Bottom line, increased testing is giving us greater visibility of actual infections while driving the estimated Mortality Rate lower.
The bottom graph shows the total U.S Fatalities. Today’s numbers are somewhat concerning. Instead of edging to the right, it is continuing on an arithmetic, not exponential track upwards. Whether this is indeed a harbinger of worse to come, merely a spike or just the Fatality count lagging behind the count of newly discovered cases. As I noted when there was “good news,” one or even two days, does not make a trend.
This chart is a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 2 or 3 other persons out there with it. For today’s report:
M/R = 1.30%
+1 = 0.65%
+2 = 0.43%
+3 = 0.32%
If you believe that there is a good chance that for each known person infected, there are 3 others out there who haven’t been reported, then the United States Wuhan Virus is now approaching the same CDC claimed M/R for our seasonal Flu. All of this could change in a nanosecond, but for now, once again, I am still cautiously optimistic.
We hope this is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments.
Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this effort who are putting themselves at risk on our behalf.