I've often expressed on multiple occasions that Kamala Harris's campaign is cooked. All the signs, except polls here and there, point to the fact that Harris's momentum is gone, and she's lagging behind Trump in almost every way. Even the polls that have her up are questionable, and don't seem to indicate a campaign that has a solid edge on the Trump campaign.
Tie that to her recent flubs over Hurricane Helene and the fight between her and DeSantis, making her look uncaring and willing to play politics with people's lives. It didn't help that even Joe Biden seemed ready and willing to contradict her, showing that her own boss is willing to leave her out in the cold.
(READ: Kamala Harris' Campaign Is Sinking Beneath the Waves)
My optimism about the 2024 election is agreed upon by many at this point, but there are some that react to articles like mine negatively, sometimes to the point of anger. They often cite 2022 as a reason to not feel like anything is going to change. We were confident then as well, and to the credit of those who disagree with me about 2024, the "red wave" we expected then never came. It blew a huge chunk out of the confidence of many on the right.
To be fair, I've always made it clear that even in my optimism, it's not over until Trump is placing his hand on The Bible and taking his oath. The thing is, I'm very confident he's going to get there at this time, and unlike 2022, it won't a red wave that gets him there.
For one, there were a lot of factors that contributed to a loss of Republican support going into 2022. Roe v Wade had collapsed, and that had motivated numerous women and Gen Z to come out swinging. Sara Guillermo over at Newsweek recognized this and wants a replay of 2022 by using abortion to mobilize Gen Z again:
Sixty-five percent of Gen Z women identify abortion as a critical, top-five issue driving them to the polls. Since 96 percent of IGNITE women voted during the 2022 midterms, they're a powerful group. Gen Z and Millennials are now the largest voting bloc in the country. And it's a false narrative to describe Gen Z as a "wasted generation." These are decisive numbers when it comes to elections where even single digits matter.
Young people have shown they are ready to voice their outrage on abortion at the ballot box. In fact, they already have. Since June 2022, when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, there have been deep political consequences. The decision unleashed outrage on a scale unlike anything I have ever seen—not only in states that tend to lean one way or the other. I'm talking about results in Kansas, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. These are the bellwether states of America's political heartland. It's simple. Candidates who reject women's abortion rights are paying dearly at the ballot box.
Gen Z did, in large part, cost Republicans a lot in 2022, but the issue has since become a bit more complex. The economy is a much greater beast to tackle at this point. It's hard to care about abortion when your checks don't mean as much as they used to and all your bills are way more expensive.
All year long, we've been hearing how Gen Z is actually starting to drift from the Democrat Party, usually thanks to the fact that the economy is so toxic, and this has been ongoing since Biden's campaign.
(READ: The Youth Vote Is Leaving Biden and Embracing Trump)
(READ: The Youth Are Abandoning the Democrat Party in Droves, Gravitating Toward the Republicans)
(READ: Is Gen Z All-In for Trump? One Young Influencer Thinks So)
To be clear, the youth are still majority Democrat, but the age group is losing its blue hue as the economy becomes more difficult to navigate as NBC News reported last Friday:
Half of Gen Z voters say they’ll vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in November, while one-third say they’ll vote for former President Donald Trump — a bigger gap for the Democratic nominee than some other polls this year but not quite at 2020 levels for the party, according to a new survey of registered voters under 30.
The results of the NBC News Stay Tuned Gen Z Poll, powered by SurveyMonkey, come as young voters grapple with new economic and cultural challenges in 2024, including rising costs and concerns about debt that are prompting delays to some critical life events.
The youth isn't the only place Democrats have been losing steam. Minorities, including the black community, are also turning from Harris in order to embrace Trump in a way that hurts, as my colleague Jeff Charles reported. Where Democrats should be enjoying a 90 percent approval from the Black community, they're sitting at 70 percent where Trump is getting 12 percent, a massive number for a Republican.
Latino voters are really causing Democrats to panic, as Trump is tied with Harris on Hispanics at 39 percent, marking the worst performance with Hispanics since John Kerry.
Then there's the fact that even Democrat voters aren't too keen on voting Democrat, as the party's radicalization is hard to overlook. Between the party's blind eye to actual antisemitism and its friendliness with socialism, Trump's camp is finding itself surrounded by an increasing number of moderate Democrats who can't put up with their own party any longer.
You can see this in the various figures that have joined Trump's coalition such as RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, and Elon Musk, all of whom were Democrats until they found their party had betrayed and abandoned them. Moreover, it's interesting to watch Trump hold rallies in blue areas, such as the Bronx, and see these people say they're voting for him despite being Democrats.
(READ: The Blurred Political Line Between Donald Trump and the Republican Party)
Then, of course, there's the Rust Belt which is increasingly leaning Trump according to fresh polling:
The poll also showed that half of voters would vote for Trump in the upcoming election, while 47 percent backed Harris.
Voters also favored Trump in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, with half backing the former president, while 46 percent selected Harris.
The results also showed Trump narrowly beating Harris in the swing state of Michigan by one percentage point. In Wisconsin, 48 percent of people preferred the Republican, while 46 percent backed Harris.
The bottom line is that this isn't a red wave because it's made up of so many groups coming together to support Trump that it's hard to see how Harris finds a path to victory at this point. Yes, dark miracles happen, and it's not uncommon to be completely surprised by outcomes. Harris could win this, but it's looking increasingly unlikely.
It's not over till it's over, so keep fighting until it is, but know that you're winning.
