The Youth Are Abandoning the Democrat Party in Droves, Gravitating Toward the Republicans

Martti Kainulainen/Lehtikuva via AP

In a surprising twist, the demographic once firmly considered to be in the Democrat Party's camp has now gravitated to the right. According to new polling, the youth are no longer ridin' with Biden, to the point where more of them are favoring voting in Republicans than Democrats. 

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As reported by Newsweek, the National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS) published by Pew Research found that people under 30 are abandoning the Democrat Party and have given Republicans a very slim lead in their demographic: 

The NPORS found that, among all respondents, 47 percent said they were Republican or leaned Republican, while 46 percent said they were Democrats or leaned toward the Democrats.

The poll was conducted from February 1 to June 10 among 5,626 U.S. adults.

Analysts were quick to point to the detailed figures regarding party affiliation among young people.

"By subgroup, the headline is age," The New York Times' chief political analyst Nate Cohn wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

"NPORS found the GOP ahead on leaned party ID among 18 to 29 year olds, even though the sample was Biden+20 on 2020 recall vote. The sample size is fairly large (n=496) and it hasn't shown anything like this in previous cycles," Cohn added.

Cohn remarked on X that Democrats still hold an edge when it comes to non-white voters, but this is also a declining trend. 

"There were fewer shifts by race, though the Dem share of major party leaning nonwhite voters kept edging downward, from 68 to 65%. They did show a GOP edge among registered nonvoters," he said. 

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This is a continuing trend. As I reported in early June, the Democrats have been dropping the ball with the youth vote, including the minority youth. The reasons voters under 30 are departing are the same as everyone else's reasons. 

It's the economy, stupid: 

The issue for younger voters is the same issue for the older ones. The economy is at the top of everyone's mind, and Gen Z doesn't see its economic prospects improving under the Biden administration. An Economist/YouGov poll found that at the top of the chart for concerns, inflation/prices came in at the top at 23 percent, with immigration next at 13 percent. The issue that the media has been pairing most with the youth, "foreign policy," only came in at one percent. 

(READ: Trump Strikes As Biden's Campaign Falters With the Youth Vote)

This doesn't mean that the Republicans can have completely won over the youth. There's probably a solid chance that many of them could still vote Democrat with the proper amount of convincing. A sudden shift away from Biden might cause some of them to feel the spark of leftism reignite in them in the 11th hour, but as it stands, the Democrat's handling of the economy has impacted Gen Z as much as it has everyone else. 

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It's highly likely that the debate didn't do much to help the youth's confidence in a Biden administration, just like everyone else. 

Time will tell, but if the youth continues to depart from the Democrats, then the Democrats will have lost their ace in the hole that really helped them in the 2022 midterms. 

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