Polls infamously don’t tell the whole story regarding an election. They’re effectively using a sample of people to gauge the voting population’s mood before they head to the voting booth to pull the lever.
One trusted pollster who tends to get it right more than others is sounding the alarm that polls during the midterm election season are a bit off and is warning Democrats, in particular, that their leads in many polls aren’t as strong as they may think.
According to the Daily Wire, Trafalgar group founder and senior strategist Robert Cahaly sat down with the site’s new show “Election Wire,” where Cahaly noted that Republicans are being severely underrepresented and the Democrats don’t have the numbers most polls are telling them they do:
“These submerged voters aren’t answering polls, they aren’t putting stickers on their cars, or signs in their yard — they’re not even posting on social media,” Cahaly said. “They are underwater. They’re not saying a word to anybody until election day.”
Cahaly said voters shouldn’t trust polls in the coming weeks, considering many pollsters failed to accurately predict the last three elections by highly favoring Democrats and undercounting Republicans.
“Polls have two purposes,” he said. “They’re either to reflect the electorate, or they’re to affect the electorate — and too many of these media and university-based polls are designed to affect the electorate and are trying to create a false narrative quite often when there’s not one.”
This is something Cahaly has been urging for some time now. Dan Bongino asked the Trafalgar chief strategist why polls continuously get it wrong regarding GOP support. Cahaly said boiled it down to some very simple reasons, the primary one is that Biden’s comments about Republicans have driven them into not declaring who they want in office.
“This year, our fear is that people are not going to be polled that are Trump supporters because all that Biden has said, and all the apparent attacks, and people coming after them and they’re just hesitant even to participate,” Cahaly told Bongino.
Cahaly’s strategy allows him to get around this issue by asking people who they believe their neighbors are voting for, giving Trafalgar a better sample.
The thing is, even with Republicans being undersampled, many mainstream polls are already signifying Republicans are doing very well. If Trafalgar is right — and they have a record of being more on the accurate side — then the rumored Republican red wave is very real.