The Polling Narrative Before the Storm

(AP Photo/John Minchillo)

Resident polling expert and fellow VIP writer Scott Hounsell has been analyzing election polls and brought up something very interesting in his latest article.

The poll centered around North Carolina and while delving into it, Hounsell found something very interesting, and by “interesting” I mean “completely way the hell off.” The polling numbers show Biden ahead in the Tarheel State, but as our polling expert points out, the rest of the numbers don’t add up:

When factoring for the registration advantage for Republicans in the state since 2016, it makes it rather hard to believe that, short of support for Trump falling off of a cliff amongst Independents, that isn’t the case.  While Independents have shifted slightly to Dems over the course of the last 4 years, a recent North Carolina poll (9/26) still gives Trump a 6 point lead among Independents.  Simply put, if Trump wins a majority of Republicans and a majority/plurality of Independents, it won’t matter how Democrats vote, as Dems couldn’t amass the support for Biden anywhere else.

Early in the article, Hounsell pointed out that the poll was largely skewed in various ways. One poll, he points out, had 32% of the electorate being between the ages of 18-24, tipping the poll largely to the left as many young voters tend to identify as Democrat.

Funny enough, this isn’t the first time I’ve seen this.

A poll was released by NBC that showed Biden with a hefty lead over Trump by a whopping 14 points.

(READ: That Garbage NBC Poll Showing Biden up by 14 Points Is Likely Part of a Larger Plan Against Trump)

The poll took the news world by storm and was touted by every major mainstream outlet with reckless abandon. They made it clear that Trump just didn’t have the popularity that Biden did, and that Democrats were sweeping the ballot box.

It was, as the title of the link above says, complete and total garbage. Looking at the poll’s sampling, you’ll find that Democrats were oversampled by around nine points, heavily tilting the entire thing toward the left.

If you look at many of the polls going around right now you’ll find that interesting pattern happening. For some reason, the left is being heavily oversampled in these polls. If you’re a Democrat, this seems counter-intuitive. If you make people think that their candidate is as good as elected, they may stay home under the impression that everyone else has got it handled. Laziness takes over and as such, would-be voters watch as the people who actually voted get their candidate into office.

It’s the voters who are worried their candidate won’t win who get out and vote. Their worry and fear drive them to make sure that they themselves aren’t one of the mistakes that send their opponent into office.

So why do this?

The only thing I can see that would prompt Democrat-friendly media and/or polling companies to do this is narrative creation. If they make it seem like Biden is so popular, how could he have lost? If and when Trump wins, they can then proclaim that his victory was somehow illegitimate and was only brought about because he somehow cheated.

I’ve mentioned this before, and even noted that as time goes on we’ll see more polls tell us that Biden is so far out ahead that it would be impossible for Trump and the Republicans to catch up. If I’m right, and they’re setting up for a way to proclaim illegitimacy, then we’re going to see a massive and drawn-out campaign to delegitimize Trump’s presidency. He will be dealing with it until his last day in office four years after his reelection.

It’s more than that, as well. Calls for eliminating the electoral college will find a new life, once again. Perhaps this time they will stop just complaining about it and attempt to take action legislatively if they can.

They will also use this as a reason to riot in the streets even more, and perhaps even call for open terrorism while all the while, calling it resistance against oppression and tyranny brought about from an unfair or cheated voting process.

I believe that what we’re seeing is the seeds of political civil war going forward. I hope I’m wrong and perhaps that my words are just a bit of hyperbole brought on by distrust of the left, but you can only see a pattern so many times before you start to see the playbook.

Something is coming and it’s not going to be good.