After grueling months with dual strikes leading to lengthy work stoppages in Hollywood, the Writers Guild of America was crowing over the new deals struck with the studios. Higher salaries and better royalty payouts were agreed to, along with a number of other concerns, and it appeared the struggle with months of no paychecks had ultimately been worth it as it was said to have led to a happy ending.

Today though it appears a plot twist has been added, as now writers are finding there is far less work available in the entertainment industry. Motion pictures are not being shot at the same pace, television pilots have dwindled, and new projects are not mushrooming in the fashion they were just a couple of years ago. What exactly is happening?

On our recent episode of The Cuture Shift we discussed a telling statistic. Since the strikes ended in California they measured a steep drop in the amount of production work in the state. Overall shooting days for film and television productions fell by -8.7%, with a jarring drop of over -16% on the TV side. This is in stark contrast to an expected surge of work, as it was suspected that studios would have a logjam of productions stacked up. So just what is happening, and why is there this drop in the amount of new work? Much of it stems from basic economics.

The first thing to see is that likely studios saw the coming strikes so they went on a buying spree of scripts. This was a hedge against not having new product, but then the actors guild also had a work stoppage in the summer. The result? The lack of any productions for long months means many studios are sitting on a pile of unshot screenplays, and these hold more appeal today as new scripts are seen as costlier.

But what is going on with television? For one, broadcast networks continue to see ratings erosion. The only thing people watch with energy is football. "60 Minutes" is the highest-rated non-sports programming (boosted in part by its NFL lead-in), and scripted shows struggle to land in the top 150 annually. During the strike, no scripted program broke into the top 200.

The surge of streaming script purchases seen over the past few years abated, and this happened for several reasons. It began that the rise of numerous streaming platforms was a cause for massive demand for product. Streamers needed to have new programming for the sake of competition as well as building up content in the catalogs to hold value for subscribers. This led to a harsh reality.

Netflix is the only major platform flush with capital, as the costs of starting new as well as building up content has been costly for the competition. From Disney+ to Paramount+, annual losses in the billions of dollars have been the reality, and those are also losing subscribers at a time when it was expected those numbers would rise and bring them to break-even territory. Then the costs of maintaining the libraries became a drain.

While having a stuffed vault of titles was originally a selling point these were soon discovered to be a problem. Royalties need to be paid on content under possession of the companies, and with subscribership eroding what was thought originally to be loss-leaders were instead true mounting liabilities. This was seen with one particular series at Paramount. Last spring it debuted the “Grease” prequel series “The Rise Of The Pink Ladies,” and quickly it was seen as a critical mess and ignored by audiences. Before its conclusion, Paramount+ not only canceled the series but also announced it would not be made available in its library. The company understood the lack of demand and did not want to continue paying out royalties on a show that drew little interest.

Now with the strike resolved those payouts will only be higher, so studios and platforms are no longer willing to simply say “yes” to any script for the sake of obtaining property. They need surefire interest these days. There is another factor behind this production hesitancy for new programming that is less obvious. It is nestled deep in the metrics of the shooting days data, showing a strange favoritism for one genre. 

• Location-heavy TV drama production dropped -5.5% and less location-heavy TV comedy production plunged by -51.5%. TV pilots — nearly none of which were made in 2023…yielded just 66 shoot days.

At first this seems like a strange anomaly, especially when you consider location shooting for dramas would be far more involved on the production side. Generally, you need a larger crew with more cameras, and mobility of the entire crew is another challenge, so why would there be more days of filming of this style of show when sitcoms have a static set and easier production demands? The answer may be found in one of the strike provisions.

Among the various components in the new contract was one for increased staffing inside writers' rooms. This means that not only are the rates increasing for the writers, but studios will also have to meet higher minimums for those writers on staff. This will lead to decisions such as fewer episodes being needed, and a shift towards action-based dramas. Consider – less writing is needed for action sequences involving fight scenes, shootouts, and car chases. Dialogue-heavy sitcoms and studio dramas require more writing.

Yet another reason for the contraction in the industry is the financial forecasts means tougher decisions being made. In February Reuters spoke with industry leaders who were not optimistic about the future for the entertainment business. 2023 saw drops in revenue, and more is forecasted to take place this year. So with belt-tightening already an ongoing concern it was coming at a time when the help is demanding a bigger cut. 

Currently, the crew unions are in the negotiating stage with studios, and they appear bolstered by the dual strikes of last year. Now that there is the specter of the trade unions staging a walkout by July there will be even more reason for the productions to move forward with severe caution. The time of studios greenlighting scripts on a whim are well over, and the flashing yellow light over the industry is poised to turn red once again. 

This is becoming a plot development for the writers that few were able to imagine arriving.