It was one year ago today when the Bud Light promotions team and online trans influencer Dylan Mulvaney revealed a new marketing partnership. Releasing a bizarre video, Mulvaney is in a bubble bath, clothed, with a tiered display of Bud Light cans in a corner as he sips the brew while somewhat dancing in the suds. 

In another Instagram post, Mulvaney announced the partnering comes as he celebrates “365 days of womanhood,” with a can emblazoned with his image and even a March Madness promotional contest. It was a ridiculous display, with Mulvaney trying to playfully sell a concept of a sportsball competition he clearly knows nothing about. It made as much sense as having PETA delivering a "We Have The Greens!" promotion for Arby's.

The blowback from this display was almost instantaneous. Released on a Saturday, the video prompted rather quick reactions on social media, and by that Monday news outlets were reporting on the furor. Customers were lashing out, singer Kid Rock posted a video with him shooting a case of the beer, and very quickly this tide of opposition became a wave, and then a tsunami of outrage at the beer brand.

Raising a glass today in honor of the 1-year anniversary of the greatest marketing move in brewing history. pic.twitter.com/meKQHjY7OM

— Lie-Able Sources (@LieAbleSources) April 1, 2024

This developed into the most visual of object lessons for businesses to learn from going forward. For years at RedState we've been cataloguing the poor decisions made by companies wading into socio-political minefields. (Hello, Disney!) Why you would strive to alienate a significant portion of spenders by staking out a divisive position has never made sound business sense. Bud Light took it to an extreme, actively driving off a huge sector of its customer base to virtue signal and appeal to a group with a population percentage that trends in the low single digits.

What was most jarring was how tone-deaf Anheuser-Busch was initially to this backlash. Days after customer complaints, the brewer actually came out and defended the move to partner with Mulvaney. By way of explanation, an A-B spokesperson said, “From time to time, we produce unique commemorative cans for fans and for brand influencers, like Dylan Mulvaney. This commemorative can was a gift to celebrate a personal milestone and is not for sale to the general public.”

This only angered the dedicated drinkers more, and then came another piece of evidence of the tone-deaf positions. Next was the discovery of an interview previously conducted with the woman who spearheaded the Mulvaney promotion. Bud Light’s marketing VP Allisa Heinerscheid explained her plan to evolve the beer into a woke brand. In perhaps one of the most infamous marketing failures, she insulted most of her customers when she described her core audience as being “fratty, and out of touch”. 

By this stage the freefall of Bud Light had begun. Sales were immediately impacted, and as the controversy swelled, the problem only grew. Soon there was direct evidence of the beer losing traction in the marketplace. Stocks languished in coolers and the distributors were forced to begin buying back unsold cases. Stores were seen shrinking the shelf space for the brand, and others in the industry also reported the customer flight.

The results were swift, and they were dire. In just a matter of months Bud Light was toppled as the nation’s top-selling beer label, a title it held for decades. Heinerscheid and her supervisor became “leave of absence” pariahs, and after the outrage persisted, they were dispatched entirely. As a sign of how poorly things became, I spoke anonymously with a shipping manager who is a silent partner in a bar in a different region, and their establishment had to remove Bud Light from the tap row, despite his contacts, due to the sheer avoidance of the label. 

Months after the debacle took place, I spoke with a sales rep from one distributor who explained sales had been strong in March of 2023, then fell off the cliff in April. As a result, the brewery altered its buyback program, accepting any out-of-code stockpiles from retailers. In another costly move, the company worked to retain its salesforce by compensating for the sales drop; they would compare prior year sales figures for the time and make up the difference for the depressed post-Mulvaney revenue totals.

Overall, things have not recovered. While much has been made of the billions of dollars lost in its stock price, it has recovered somewhat, currently down about -7 percent from March of 2023. But this has been largely the international sales boosting things. Domestically it is still rough sledding. The departure of drinkers from the label was a boon for other brands, as Molson-Coors experienced its best quarter in sales since the breweries merged nearly 20 years ago. Modelo became the top-selling beer in the U.S.

Estimates have the loss in sales of Bud Light trending to -$1.4 billion. One sign of the permanence of this problem was seen in January, as the year-over-year sales figures were off by -30%. The last quarter's financial numbers were tepid, at best, and still reflect harsh challenges domestically.

Throughout the year, the brewer has made marketing attempts to reestablish itself with drinkers. Peyton Manning and Emmit Smith have appeared together in pre-Super Bowl commercials. Bud Light struck a record-breaking deal with the UFC. Budweiser was branded with Harley Davidson. These and other attempts to become entrenched positively once again in the public consciousness will be a long road to any type of recovery.

While the initial reaction to the foolish April promotion last year was dubbed a “boycott,” the company managed to instead drive away devoted drinkers. Established beer consumers are a dedicated bunch with a locked-in consciousness toward their brand of choice. Having once sold beer I can attest to the tough effort it was to sway drinkers towards a new offering. Losing them is not a temporary challenge but an ongoing issue. Adding to the malaise is the loss of appeal to emerging beer consumers, where the chance to cement them as dedicated Bud Light drinkers has been lost for many. 

It is entirely possible that one day Bud Light can once again rise to the top in beer sales, but it is going to be a lengthy process, probably years in the resolution. This is not a case of waiting for things to cool down and merely hoping drinkers will return. It will be an ongoing, expensive effort - and it is not assured it can even succeed.