The RedState Box Office Report -- Star Wars Loses Orbit in a Strong Weekend

*promotional images courtesy Sony Pictures, Walt Disney Studios*

There was plenty of business spread around theaters on this post-holiday week.

The opening weekend of 2020 was actually busy, despite a new arrival doing poorly and the final Star Wars continuing to under-impress. The entire field managed to find some interest across a collection of solid releases.

The expectation is that 2020 will become a down year, as Disney has fewer big-ticket titles coming out. After a record-setting 2019 the studio will scale back slightly, with some major releases relegated to its Disney Plus streaming service. Here are the results of the first weekend of the new decade.

1. STAR WARS: EPISODE IX – THE RISE OF SKYWALKER – $33.74 Million
The numbers are big for this release – $450 million has now been taken in domestically. Yet, considering the property, past results, and that this is regarded as the culmination of the franchise, this is not delivering as big as some would expect. ‘’The Last Jedi’’ is poorly regarded and derided by many dedicated fans, and despite all of that ‘’Skywalker’’ is performing less impressively by the same time of its release. All said this one is still expected to reach $1 billion worldwide very soon.

2. JUMANJI: THE NEXT LEVEL – $26.5m
Showing a similar dose of long-range strength that ‘’Welcome To The Jungle’’ displayed 2 years ago, this sequel is at $240 million in total now, less than -10% off of the pace of the predecessor. That title came in just under $1 billion worldwide, so the prospects for this one are equally high.

3. LITTLE WOMEN – $13.57m
Despite the Washington Post believing this release was doing poorly, and that men were entirely to blame for that showing, it is managing to find some decent success in the past couple of weeks. After two weeks it has drawn in $60 million, which is a return I doubt few anticipated. This, despite the fact that there are a couple of prior iterations of this 150-year-old tale.

Not to mention that you can always rent or stream the 2018 version of the adaptation.
Or the 2017 version.
Or the 1994 version.
Or the 1987 version.
Or the 1978 version.
Or the 1958 version.
Or the 1949 version.
Or the 1933 version.
Or the 1918 version.
Or………………..

— Brad Slager: aka Wuhan Solo (@MartiniShark) January 3, 2020

4. THE GRUDGE – $11.3m
Sony attempted to reinvigorate this property, but the prospects are not good for a lasting franchise. This title exhibits all the hallmarks of a January dumping-ground release; it was moved on the schedule a few times by the studio before it gave up and spit it out this month with only a modicum of promotional effort behind it. The initial audiences for the Thursday preview screenings were harsh, and that continued through the Friday showings. Some early prospects had this maybe landing in the mid-teens, then down to around $12 million. Exit scores from audiences was a rarely seen ‘’F’’ grade. Once the Monday actuals are reported it could very well drop lower. Expect this to fade from screens before the close of the month.

5. FROZEN 2 – $11.29M
The numbers continue to be impressive. $450 million domestically, and up to $1.3 billion as a worldwide total.

6. SPIES IN DISGUISE – $10.08m
A strong hold, with only a -24% drop in week number two. This is against a holiday release date, albeit one that somewhat underperformed. Still, the animated film with Will Smith toplining the vocal cast is nearing $50 million already.

7. KNIVES OUT – $9.02m
Speak of impressive holds; this hit drama falls less than -9% in its sixth week in release. Something few anticipated was this title landing in the top-25 of box office performers last year, and it is still going strong.

8. UNCUT GEMS – $7.82m
This surprise dramatic role for Adam Sandler has taken in $37 million for studio A24, and is expected to continue on to be that company’s biggest biggest-grossing title by the end of its run.

9. BOMBSHELL – $4.07m
Lionsgate continues to roll this out with a measured release platform. It adds 240 screens this weekend as it has gradually taken in just under $25 million to this point.

10. CATS – $2.6m
In a very surprising turn this title that opened disastrously has somehow managed to cling to a small audience – but make no mistake, it is still a complete failure. After a debut of under $7 million, it has so far squeezed out a better than expected $26 million to date. I will take credit for encouraging people to go out and see this fiasco.