Amid a national fight over redistricting, Ohio has a new congressional map, and unfortunately, Republicans left far too much meat on the bone. On Friday, a last-minute "compromise" map was put forth and passed with a 7-0 vote, leaving the GOP with the possibility of picking up no seats in 2026.
To put it succinctly, this is a surrender at the worst possible time, and these maps are now in place for the next three cycles.
#BREAKING: The Ohio Redistricting Commission has voted 7-0 to adopt the new congressional map.
— The Redistrict Network (@RedistrictNet) October 31, 2025
Since the map has received affirmative votes from both Democrats and at least two of the five Republicans it passed and is now law. pic.twitter.com/Vyobqzsv52
There are multiple ways to view this, some more misleading than others. If you only look at the partisan breakdown, you can sugarcoat things to claim this is a two-seat pickup for the GOP. Looking at the data, though, that's a misread that some on the right are already making. You can't just look at a district being 51/49 R-D (based on 2024 data) now and mark it down as a pickup. You have to analyze these maps based on how competitive each district will be, along with who the incumbents are and what resources will have to be expended.
In short, given the typical fundamentals of off-year elections, this could easily end up only as an 11-4 map for Republicans, and in a less rosy scenario, where Democrats overperform, like in 2018, the GOP could end up with no gained seats.
For example, OH-1 is being counted as a "pickup" here by Republicans because it now wears the slightest shade of white-red, but it is actually a pure toss-up. Democrats currently hold that seat, and the incumbent advantage could keep it in their hands. Meanwhile, OH-13, which Democrats won by just two points in 2024, was made bluer, solidifying Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-OH) as the incumbent and locking Republicans out. The one real pickup for the GOP appears to be in OH-9, which was made more Republican-leaning. But again, you have a Democrat incumbent in that seat, which means nothing is guaranteed.
Before this map was proposed and passed at the eleventh hour, Republicans were expected to produce a 13R-2D result. There is no reason that shouldn't have happened in this scenario. The GOP holds a five-to-two advantage on the state's redistricting committee. What was the point of compromising here? Why give the Democrats a map that allows them to escape most of the worst-case scenarios for them?
Do Ohio Republicans think California and Virginia are going to do that? Because right now, those states are barreling toward the total decimation of the GOP in their redistricting fights.
SEE: Soros Dumps Big Cash Into California Redistricting Fight
We can not win like this. We can't leave seats on the table out of some ridiculous notion of collegiality while Democrats operate in the most cutthroat way possible. If a blue wave happens, and that's very much within the realm of possibility based on mid-term fundamentals alone, it's going to overtake this new map and be bad news for the GOP. Ohio Republicans were supposed to be some of the big players in this redistricting battle, and they didn't deliver when their voters needed them the most. Now, other red states will have to do even more to make up for it.
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