Democrats are counting on a big victory in 2026 to bring their party out of political purgatory, but things aren't exactly going according to plan. CNN's data guru, Harry Enten, offered a "reality check" on Wednesday, citing the current polling numbers compared to what we were seeing in 2018.
Traditionally, out-of-power parties have an advantage across multiple fundamentals in midterm elections. That's not materializing, though. Not yet, anyway, and as I'll discuss, that's a big problem for Democrats for one simple reason.
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Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 16, 2025
Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles.
Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt. pic.twitter.com/CRgXukTjz6
I have to wonder how much Enten is liked over at CNN, given his job often becomes quashing the unbridled narratives of his left-wing colleagues. Regardless, 2006 isn't a very interesting comparison, in my opinion. George W. Bush's presidency had completely collapsed by that point, and a Republican wipe-out was written into the stars long before voters went to the polls.
2018 is a bit different in that Trump still enjoyed broad support from his base and party as a whole, something Bush had lost, yet Democrats were able to clean up with independents. If Democrats want to feel good about 2026, they need to start seeing the trends look like 2018, but the generic ballot is only showing a minor shift, a shift that could easily be explained by the same type of polling error we saw in 2024.
Enten goes on to point out, the seat-by-seat analysis isn't favoring Democrats either, and that situation could get a lot worse for them very soon. As RedState reported on Tuesday, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has called a special session with the express intent to redraw the state's congressional districts. The expectation is for Republicans to pick up at least four seats, if not five. That alone could be decisive in 2024.
All of this is terrible news for Democrats for one simple reason: They've got very few, if any, cards left to play to dramatically change the political environment.
They've already lost their minds over Trump in two dozen different ways. There's only so many times you can mumble "fascist" before voters roll their eyes and tune it out (and we are way past that point). Likewise, they are losing the narrative battle over illegal immigration because the results don't lie. The economy isn't going gangbusters yet, but it's not tanking either, something Democrats were counting on to make their case. In other words, it seems like they've shot all their shots and are still neck-and-neck with Republicans in a scenario where they need to be well ahead.
So what now? More CNN hits? More crying about Trump being a "threat" to democracy? These numbers are a bad sign for Democrats, though never underestimate the ability of congressional Republicans to figure out a way to lose.
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