The Break-Glass Option Republicans Must Secure in November

As the presidential race hits its stride, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are dominating the political conversation. That's not unexpected given the winner of the White House will have significant power to change the direction of the country.

With that said, what if the worst happens for Republicans? What if we all wake up on November 6th to Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin going blue for a second election in a row? Will the country truly be over as some have proclaimed?

As dire as that possibility may seem, there is a way out of most of the worst outcomes of a Harris victory, and it is a break-glass option that the GOP must secure in November: Win the U.S. Senate.

I know that's not as exciting and entertaining of a topic as discussing how awful Kamala Harris is. I understand it's not sexy. It doesn't make the cable news discussion panels, and the memes are essentially nonexistent. Yet, one could argue that there is nothing more important heading into Election Day than ensuring the GOP wins back the Senate.

That's not to say Trump winning shouldn't be a top concern or that losing the House would be fine. But if Republicans take the Senate, it provides a firewall against the left's worst impulses even if Harris wins the presidency. Remember, it's not the House that confirms executive appointments, including judges. It's not the House that has the final say on reconciliation bills and budgetary matters. Having the Senate provides the Republicans with the ability to make Harris a lame duck from day one.

Sure, she'll use executive orders, but with the destruction of the Chevron Doctrine by the Supreme Court, the door is open to shut many of them down through the courts. A GOP-held Senate would cut a theoretical Harris administration off at the knees, and that's the kind of backup plan the United States must have in these tenuous times. Republicans can't put all of our eggs in a single basket, where the outcome of the presidential race decides whether the republic lives or dies.

Further, if Trump does win, then even better. Republicans would have the ability to actually move the ball forward. Does anyone want Chuck Schumer controlling the policy direction of the country under a Trump administration?

Which brings me to the actual outlook of the Senate. Right now, Republicans are heavy favorites to take control. Democrat Sen. John Tester is hanging on by a thread in Montana. Couple a GOP win there with one in West Virginia, and Republicans get to a majority barring some kind of unthinkable disaster in a state like Texas. On that front, the Cook Political Report officially moved Tester's race to "Lean Republican" on Thursday.

New @CookPolitical: Sen. Jon Tester (D) moves from Toss Up to Lean R. Full #MTSen analysis by @JessicaTaylor: https://t.co/XCUUA28jNZ
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 12, 2024

Another major opportunity for Republicans will be in Ohio. Bernie Moreno is lagging behind Democrat Sherrod Brown, but it's still a very winnable race. While an incumbent like Brown has a built-in advantage in any Senate race, Ohio is a red state and one that tends to turn out for Trump. All Moreno needs is a slight overperformance produced by the former president's coattails, and Republicans could be looking at 52 seats.

Then there's Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, who is also facing a strong incumbent but is very much within striking distance. The races in Arizona and Maryland appear less competitive for Republicans than they once did, but those possibilities still exist as well.

Conservatives and others who truly care about preserving the country can't let the presidential race become an all-or-nothing affair. This isn't about wanting Trump to win or lose. It's about ensuring that a backstop exists if the worst were to happen. Republicans must live to fight another day in that scenario, and having the Senate provides a path to limiting the damage.