Even Democrat Analysts Are Starting to Acknowledge the Red Wave

Despite proclamations of a Democrat “comeback” during the summer, it was always only a matter of time before pollsters and analysts started to “correct” the record just before the election. Sure, they pushed absolute garbage for months, misleading the public in order to prop up a partisan narrative, but now, they’ve got to make sure they get things somewhat right before the votes are actually cast. Their future credibility depends on it.


That’s the game we seem to play every election cycle, where polling shows Democrats surging when it’s hot outside but fading as the leaves begin to change. It’s almost like there are predictable ebbs and flows to election cycles, specifically mid-terms (presidential elections are far harder to predict). But nah, those fundamentals couldn’t be taken into account in the face of Morning Consult polls showing Democrats up seven points with two months to go.

So here we stand, less than three weeks before election day, and the shift is happening with fury. We’ve already seen articles from CNN and The Hill warning of a coming Republican victory. Now, even some Democrat election analysts are getting in on the act. Politico is moving races toward the GOP faster than one can reasonably keep up with. Meanwhile, Doug Schoen is outright saying the red wave cometh.


If only someone had predicted this many months ago, we wouldn’t have been so caught off-guard by these last-minute changes. But I digress, this should have been seen as inevitable to anyone paying attention. That’s not some blind proclamation whereby I’m just getting lucky. This is an election cycle that historically and fundamentally favors the Republican Party. Those that chose to ignore that in order to overdose on hopium did themselves a disservice.

And to be sure, if a Republican retakes the White House in 2024, I won’t be predicting Republicans to do well in 2026 unless there’s some cataclysmic level of data showing otherwise. Why? Because I’m honest enough to understand that’s not how it works. First-term mid-terms are bloodbaths for the in-power party for a reason, and the data surrounding the 2022 cycle never suggested an actual toss-up race. Instead, there were moments where you could believe Republicans might not do quite as well as projected, but a red wave of some height was always the most likely outcome.

Now, that wave is building back to where things stood prior to the Dobbs decision, and even the most partisan of hacks are coming to terms with that. It’s not going to be different this time and there was never any reason to believe it would be.


There is every reason to believe GOP momentum only grows in the final stretch. The economic indicators are set and won’t change again until after election day. Gas prices have risen again, and because this is not a presidential election, there’s no “October surprise” that could possibly affect all the races going on around the country.

That’s the situation, and yeah, there will be a revenge tour by me when all is said and done. I’ve got the receipts and they will be shared.


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