The war in Ukraine has taken a turn over the last month as Russia has seen its conquests diminished in the face of an aggressive counter-attack. The most stunning example of that occurred early Saturday morning as the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia was blown up, dropping the motor vehicle span into the water and damaging the railroad section above.

Incredible videos of the event, both from the time of the attack and after sunrise, are now making the rounds.

More videos pouring in now. pic.twitter.com/MnpIbkueTy

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) October 8, 2022

Road part of Crimean bridge has collapsed https://t.co/VK0doQ7vBv pic.twitter.com/7ITUuRNiYV via @SputnikATONews pic.twitter.com/3cFeH0jmtQ

— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) October 8, 2022

Oddly enough, Ukraine is not taking credit for the act (not yet, anyway), though it would only make sense for them to have been the ones to have carried it out. Russia relies on that bridge to supply its southern front in the annexed lands it is desperately trying to hold. If Vladimir Putin wanted to carry out a false flag attack to justify further escalation, there are far better ways to do that strategically than gutting his own supply lines.

But while it’s pretty clear Ukraine struck this blow in an attempt to weaken Russia’s hold on the annexed areas further north, how they did it is a bit of a mystery. You don’t get that kind of explosion from a few operatives backpacking in explosives, and I’m not sure Ukraine has the tactical strike capability to have done that from the air, either via attack aircraft or cruise missiles. A lot of speculation is centering on the possibility that this happened via an explosive-laden boat that passed under the road span. That may be the most likely explanation.

As to Russians, they are doing what they always do, which is to say they are saying things that make no sense in an attempt to save face.

First reaction from the Russian state media:https://t.co/4ITXHDXo7X pic.twitter.com/SADOXyyFXp

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) October 8, 2022

That statement from the “advisor to the head of Crimea” came after the daylight videos showing the bridge destroyed. Claiming that it’s just a “fuel tank” on fire and nothing else is damaged is outright laughable, but expected.

Where does Putin go from here? The bridge can be repaired and they can bring supplies over by boat, so I wouldn’t say this strike is decisive. It will certainly illicit a response from an already weakened Russia, though. This probably wasn’t the best time for Joe Biden to be rattling on about nuclear armageddon.

When it comes to Crimea, I do wonder how viable it is for Ukraine to regain control. I don’t even mean militarily, which would be a major feat in and of itself, but more so after the fact. In the same way that Russia overplayed its hands in the eastern and northern parts of Ukraine, falsely believing the people would be with them, the heavily-Russia-supporting populace of Crimea would be difficult to bring back into the fold. It’s an interesting thing to game out, with the possibility of an indefinite insurgency

With all that said, Russia took another body blow with this attack. At this point, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine looks more and more foolhardy. What was accomplished? What was gained? Russia is having to consolidate in areas it already controlled before the war, and winter is coming to freeze everything in place.