We’ve been inundated with polls, and while so many people hate them because they’re so often wrong, for political junkies and those of us who are terrified of an American future under a President Kamala Harris (even typing that hurt), they’re all we’ve got.
And yet, the surveys are simply not giving clarity to this election. Simply put, it could go either way:
The final New York Times/Siena College Battleground poll of the 2024 race shows a razor-tight election in the battleground states just days before the election.
Former President Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona, while Harris enjoys a lead in Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin. Michigan and Pennsylvania are tied between the two candidates, according to the poll.
"Too close to call," Siena Research declared in a social media post about the poll.
The final Times/Siena polls of the campaign show a dead-heat, with Harris gaining along late deciders in the Sun Belt while the Rust Belt tightenshttps://t.co/9klUN8AHcc pic.twitter.com/ofGsrCkhUA
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2024
The numbers are confusing, giving solace to those on both sides depending on what you look at:
In Arizona, the only state where Trump has a lead, the former president is up four points on Harris, 49-45.
Meanwhile, Harris has a one-point lead in Georgia (48-47), two points in North Carolina (48-46), three points in Nevada (49-46) and two points in Wisconsin (49-47).
The poll comes just two days before an election that promises to be one of the closest in recent memory, with the New York Times/Siena poll not being the only one showing tight margins.
Is it going to be a Trump blowout, an outcome that I would love but cannot honestly say I’m convinced is going to happen? I certainly hope so:
🚨 BREAKING: Nate Silver's election model and national polling average suggests Trump has an 85% chance of winning the election on Tuesday.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024
POPULAR VOTE:
🔵 Harris: 48.5% (+0.9)
🔴 Trump: 47.6%
ELECTORAL COLLEGE ODDS:
🔴 Trump: 85%
🔵 Harris: 14.6%
BREAKDOWN: This is due to… pic.twitter.com/ZP47mt2Ygq
Related: Exclusive: Trump Leads Harris 48 to 47 in Final 2024 Kaplan Poll of 'Gender Turnout' Election
Pick your poison: At this point of the cycle, you can find a poll saying pretty much anything you want to see. Kamala’s going to dominate, say some:
Projected Pennsylvania Mail Vote Split as of 10/29:
— PollFair (@poll_fair) October 31, 2024
🔵Harris 60.0% (+22.2)
🔴Trump 37.8%
Estimated vote in: 24.7%
Trump requires 54.2% of the remaining vote to win
(Based on @poll_fair forecast model)
2024 Mail Margin: D+25
Democrats 57%
Republicans 32%
Independents 11%… pic.twitter.com/f99RQJ30fJ
My own two cents: the polls severely underestimated Donald Trump’s support in the last two election cycles. In 2016, just a day before the election, the geniuses at Reuters had Hillary at a 90 percent chance of winning. How’d that work out, Hills?
What I hope for, and pray for, is for the American people to speak up and say that socialism is a failed ideology, that wokeism and progressivism are tearing our country apart and will be its demise if left to fester along with the Kamala Harris/Nancy Pelosi/Barack Obama/Gavin Newsom path that we’ve headed down.
It almost sounds silly at this point because I’m guessing that most of our readers have already voted or intend to. But we must say it over and over and over until we turn blue in the face—get yourself and everyone you know down to the ballot box.
We have a country to save.
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