Donald Trump is a rare political comet that, like the spectacular celestial ones, streaks overhead now and then and we shall not see again for a long time.
He has confounded Democrats since he first appeared on the political horizon 11 years ago. He captivated just enough voters in just the right places in 2016 to create an historic election upset. And then, wonder of wonders, kept his campaign promises, one by one.
He has fascinated many of us watching, even when his frequent flashes of ego emerged. He has driven once-respected media to extremes of dishonesty, even while courting them. And he has drastically altered the nation’s politics, at least for the moment.
The persuasive power of his political clout was demonstrated again in recent days, even as his personal grievances may have sown the seeds of future trouble for his final two years in office.
Midterm elections for Congress, like the ones coming Nov. 3, are almost always bad news – sometimes very bad news — for the party of an incumbent president. The president is on no ballot, but his party mates are.
Absent extraordinary events like 9/11, postwar voters have not hesitated to issue a collective thumbs-down interim verdict on a president’s previous 24 months. In 2010, they took seven Senate seats away from Barack Obama’s Democrats and handed Republicans 63 new House members, the worst spanking there in 70 years.
Worse for Democrats, they also lost six governor’s offices and 20 state legislative chambers, handing the GOP crucial control of reapportionment from that year’s Census. Democrats have yet to fully recover.
In the 2018 midterms, Trump’s Republicans picked up two Senate seats but lost 40 House members, which led directly to Nancy Pelosi’s two successful impeachment attempts on Trump.
Unless something extraordinary happens in the next five months, an assortment of polls, stubbornly high prices, special-election results, usually weak GOP turnout, and history seem to presage an adverse outcome for the GOP’s slim majorities and continuing control of Congress.
“I don’t care about the midterms,” Trump declared during last week’s Cabinet meeting discussing the Iran War.
We’ve been conditioned by this president to pay less attention to what he says, which is often hyperbolic, and more attention to what he does. His most recent political endorsements have proven powerful, even at the state level where presidents rarely get involved.
Trump endorsed primary opponents of Indiana GOP state senators who did not obey his wishes to redistrict. And several of them lost.
Trump endorsed the primary opponent of Louisiana’s Sen. Bill Cassidy, one of seven Republicans who voted to convict the president during impeachment proceedings over Jan. 6.
Cassidy lost.
More recently, Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who was challenging four-term incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn in a primary. Cornyn widely outspent Paxton, who won anyway — overwhelmingly.
This party split sets up a likely closer race between the 63-year-old Paxton, who has endured several scandals, and Democrat newcomer James Talarico, a state representative and ex-teacher, who is 37.
Incumbent senators win reelection 75 percent of the time. Open Senate contests are more iffy, raising Democrat dreams of a seat gain in Texas.
To stir reader interest, media will play up that possibility into November. But that might be a dream too far. Republicans control all statewide offices in Texas, the governorship, and both houses of the legislature. That's no accident.
Texas Senate races have grown closer in recent elections. But the once-powerful Texas Democrat Party of Lyndon Johnson and Sam Rayburn has not had a U.S. senator since 1993, and Talarico has some statements to live down in such a strongly scarlet state.
An ardent progressive and supporter of transgender causes, he has said, “God is nonbinary” and “There are many more than two biological sexes — in fact, there are six.”
Talarico has also said, “It is now essential that we try to reduce our meat consumption.” That’s, uh, an unusual suggestion for a savvy politician seeking statewide office in Texas, the nation’s largest livestock producer with the most farms and ranches of all 50.
Talarico says:
There are some statements that I’ve made that I certainly regret.
The state politician will need to appeal to disappointed Cornyn backers.
Now Talarico, who defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett (TX-30) in his own primary earlier this year, will attempt to distract from his liberal record by attacking Paxton on longstanding allegations of corruption, bribery, obstruction, securities fraud, and incompetent handling of sex-trafficking cases, all of which Paxton denies.
Last year, a Texas court ordered Paxton’s office to pay $6.6 million for violating the Texas Whistleblower Act.
On the surface, Trump’s last-minute successful effort to oust Cornyn looks puzzling. Cornyn is a superior fundraiser; Paxton not at all. Cornyn voted to acquit Trump during impeachment and has voted with the president 99 percent of the time. Some in Congress now might question the value of loyalty to a president when it's not reciprocated.
The president has praised Sen. Cornyn as “a good man” he worked with well. Trump complained only that Cornyn was “very late” backing him in 2024.
Trump may have other unstated grievances, and Cornyn might have lost anyway, given the historically high disapproval rating of Congress and the widespread national antipathy toward elderly, long-serving members that is prompting a record number to leave the Hill.
During his first campaign, Trump effectively tapped into that voter anger and frustration with the political establishments of both parties in D.C.
But Trump himself was very late endorsing Paxton, and the lone stated reason to sink a successful veteran like Cornyn seems thin, given the stakes for the administration’s legislative agenda during Trump’s last two years, should the GOP lose control of either chamber or both.
Democrats have openly vowed revenge on Trump supporters, along with more Trump impeachments by the House. Two years of unproductive congressional gridlock would make great news fodder for media, but would not be so good for the country.
And then there is that perennial rule of politics: What goes around comes around.
Both Cornyn and Cassidy remain in office until January. And some of their GOP colleagues expressed displeasure with Trump's vindictiveness. Cornyn has promised to support the Republican ticket. But given the Senate’s arcane rules, there are many quiet ways that members can delay or obstruct presidential priorities.
Trump’s endorsements of handpicked candidates have not always done so well in statewide elections. In recent years, Trump has endorsed Arizona’s Kari Lake for governor and senator and Georgia’s Herschel Walker for the Senate. Both lost those races anyway.
Heisman Trophy winner Walker played for the USFL’s New Jersey Generals when Trump owned them in the 1980s. Trump later appointed him ambassador to the Bahamas. Perhaps he'll offer a similar job to Cornyn.
