Now, let’s return to the fierce battle for the U.S. Senate in 2026.
The Democrats must win a net four seats out of the 35 on the ballot, but only two Republican held seats, Maine and North Carolina, seem in substantial danger. Meanwhile, the GOP is favored in its competitive seats in Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, while the Democrats have the edge in their seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.
President Trump is sitting at 45 percent approval to 52.2 percent disapproval at the RCP average. (Which probably includes some anti-Trump biased polling.) This is a little lower than normal, but still not much changed from where it has been for a while, and there is still no indication that any sort of “blue wave” is building.
The two parties are fighting over the ongoing federal government shutdown. Unlike during earlier shutdowns, the GOP may have the edge in winning the shutdown public relations battle, as the Democrats are being forced by their crazed left-wing base to fight for health care benefits for illegals and for money to fund NPR.
The Democrats everywhere are also fighting tooth and nail to protect some of their loyal voting blocks, the illegal aliens, antifa, and the common criminals flouting the law in blue states and blue cities.
None of this is a good look for the Democrats.
Now, let’s turn to specific new news from the competitive races for the U.S. Senate:
Georgia: Jon Ossoff / 50.62% D / Lean D
The three Republicans running to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff are raising plenty of money. Coach Derek Dooley, who is also the son of prominent Georgia coach, has raised more than $1.85 million since his launch, ending the quarter with $1.7 million in the bank. Dooley is being helped by Gov. Brian Kemp. Rep. Mike Collins’s campaign raised slightly more — roughly $1.9 million since his debut — in addition to $1 million his congressional campaign transferred to his Senate campaign. And although Rep. Buddy Carter has not yet announced his total, he raised plenty of money before and can loan himself millions more. This primary will likely be brutal, with all three Republicans having enough money to win, and we may see here an example of the Feingold Maneuver. However, the winner is still likely to be the underdog to Sen. Jon Ossoff, who is sitting on a $15.5 million kitty so far. There is some good news for the Republican nominee – a pro-life group has pledged to make a massive investment in the race.
Iowa: Joni Ernst (retiring) / Likely R
In just four weeks, Ernst retired, Rep. Ashley Hinson jumped in, won endorsements from President Trump and the Republican leadership, and has raised more than $1.7 million. She is also sitting on $4 million on hand. Meanwhile, her leading Democrat opponent, Jackie Norris, made national news by being exposed for hiring an illegal alien with an extensive criminal rap sheet and history of immigration fraud, with bogus credentials, to serve as the Des Moines School Superintendent. This race may well be over before it even began.
Maine: Susan Collins / 50.98% R / Lean R
Things are about to get hot in the Maine Democrat primary as Gov. Janet Mills is reportedly set to announce. This guarantees a tough primary, as the wealthy Bernie Bros veteran cosplaying as a “Maine oyster farmer” Graham Platner has raised $3.2 million, has been endorsed by Sen. Sanders, and has vowed to oppose Sen. Chuck Schumer in the leadership race, meaning that he is not going to stand down for Mills. Also, there is another candidate who has raised over $2 million. I sense an upset here, as Mills is 77, which is rather old for a freshman U.S. Senator, and Platner and the other candidate both have enough money to appeal to the left-wing Democrat base which hates compromise, capitalism, and Israel. The Feingold Maneuver may make another appearance. In the general, I expect Collins to hold on, especially against Platner, who is so radical that he will not wear well with Maine voters in contrast to the moderate institution who is Susan Collins. Besides, Collins is chair of Appropriations Committee; have you heard?
Michigan: Gary Peters (retiring) / Tilt D
Mallory McMorrow, the third wheel in the Michigan Democrat primary, recently caved to her left-wing base to recognize the imaginary “genocide” in Gaza, joining the Bernie Bro radical Muslim Abdul El-Sayed, and contrasting with Rep. Haley Stevens, the DSCC’s preferred candidate. All three are raising money, guaranteeing an epic clash, and the possible appearance of the Feingold Maneuver. In the general, former Congressman Mike Rogers is waiting, and he may be helped by the bitterness in the primary and by massive spending by a pro-life group.
North Carolina: Thom Tillis (retiring) / Tilt D
Former Democrat North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper hauled in a massive $14.5 million, beating former Republican National Committee Chairman and Senate candidate Michael Whatley, who only raised $6 million. Cooper is going to need it. This race is going to be all about his and other Democrat’s soft-on-crime policies, and how they inevitably led to the murder of Irina Zarutska. The attacks ads from Sen. Tom Cotton’s super PAC are just a precursor. Apparently, the big Democrat counter strategy to these kinds of attacks will be more talk of gun control. This will not work, and Cooper faces a tough campaign to win, although based on the current polling I still give him the nominal edge.
Texas: John Cornyn / 53.51% R / Lean R
The Republican field is finally set in Texas, as Rep. Wesley Hunt announced he would challenge Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Hunt is far behind in the money race – he raised just over $400,000, while Paxton hauled in $2.9 million and Cornyn’s political operation pulled in $3.9 million. Hunt also trails in the polling behind both Paxton, who is in first, and then Cornyn. However, both Cornyn and Paxton have major weaknesses, which Hunt could use to his own advantage. A lot may depend on whom President Trump endorses; I have guessed John Cornyn. Hunt also seems likely to benefit from the Feingold Maneuver, as Cornyn and Paxton have spent months of time and millions of dollars hammering each other.
Meanwhile, it appears that the Democrats are also going to have a tough primary, as state Rep. James Talarico raised a massive $6.2 million in the three weeks since he launched his bid, outpacing the $4.1 million former Rep. Colin Allred raised over the last three months. This is very impressive. However, in the Democrat primary, the minorities and "Karens" who vote tend to disfavor white heterosexual males, so Talarico has his work cut out for him.
Whoever wins the GOP primary should be a solid favorite over the Democrat. This is simply not the year that Texas is likely to turn blue.
Editor’s Note: The Schumer Shutdown is here. Rather than put the American people first, Chuck Schumer and the radical Democrats forced a government shutdown for healthcare for illegals. They own this.
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