The House Battle May Come Down to the Issues, Which Is Not Good for the Democrats

It’s about time for another look at the raging partisan battlefield of the U.S. House in 2026. The CW is that the race for control over the House is a “coin flip.” To hold the House, the GOP must avoid losing three or more (net) seats. Only twice in recent times has the majority party picked up seats in a midterm election.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is hoping the GOP will pick up 100 more (net) seats!

Remember, the GOP strategy includes: 1) push GOP redistricting; 2) minimize retirements; 3) spend big; 4) take primary challengers off the table; 5) raise gobs more money; 6) ramp up recruiting; and 7) push certain salient issues.

The first part of the GOP strategy, re-redistricting, continues to plug along:

Texas has passed new lines, and five Democrat held seats are now vulnerable.
Missouri has re-redistricted, likely picking up one GOP seat.
Ohio must re-redistrict, and the GOP is likely to target two more seats.
Indiana may re-redistrict – Vice President JD Vance has lobbied them to do so – which could provide one or two seats for the GOP.
Florida has signaled they are likely to consider redrawing, which could lead to a two or three-seat gain for the GOP.
Nebraska is a possibility, although the odds are long that the GOP could protect the seat of Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE).
Kansas is moving to re-redistrict, helped by pressure from the Club for Growth, which is advertising in favor of re-redistricting to eliminate the lone Democrat in the House delegation. It is still a stretch, though.

Unfortunately for the Democrats, legal hurdles make it practically impossible for most blue states to redraw maps before the 2026 midterms. With one exception:

California is looking surprisingly positive for the Democrats, thanks to Gov. Newsom’s framing of the naked partisanship as pushback to “Trump the devil,” assistance from the DNC, and a large investment of funds from George Soros. As a result, the Democrats have taken the lead in recent polling. If implemented, the Democrat plan could swing up to five Republican districts to the Democrats.

Further, the state courts in Utah have required that state to re-redistrict its House seats, which could lead to the Democrats picking up a seat.

There are also some significant changes to the other components of the GOP strategy since we last discussed matters.

The money situation continues to look (mostly) good for the GOP. The one exception appears to be that the DCCC has crushed the NRCC in the most recent fundraising period. However, the RNC cash reserves dominate those of the DNC, so overall, the GOP is still ahead.

Of course, none of this considers the various super PACs and interest groups out there. For example:

House Majority Forward, a nonprofit aligned with House Democratic leadership, is spending $3 million on broadcast TV and digital ads attacking Republicans on cost-of-living increases and cuts to Medicaid.

But with the sitting president on their side, and a majority in both the House and Senate, I suspect that the GOP will have a money edge for the 2026 midterms.

The GOP also continues to have a tremendous advantage over the Democrats on the salient issues. Because the Democrats are so afflicted by TDS, they continue to take the unpopular side on many of the "80/20" wedge issues. We know that the Republicans will be pushing the following topics: 1) the crackdown on illegal immigration; 2) soft-on-crime policies in left-wing run big cities; 3) “trans issues”; 4) the radicalism of Zohran Mamdani; 5) left-wing political violence; 6) cuts to education grants to left-wing colleges; 7) possible impeachment; and 8) (perhaps) flag burning.

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) has urged Republicans to highlight their support for President Trump’s crime crackdown efforts, arguing that voters will reject Democrats for supporting soft-on-crime policies that make their own communities less safe. He believes this will be the “number one issue on voters’ minds.” The rest of the GOP leadership is echoing his call. Especially after the murder of Iryna Zarutska, whose killing by a schizophrenic career criminal who often escaped jail time in a Democrat-led major city has already found its way into the Senate race in North Carolina.

The “trans issue” is also currently being used in Virginia and New Jersey by the GOP candidates for governor.

Radical Muslim socialist (if not communist) and antisemite Zohran Mamdani’s Democrat candidacy is proving a political boon for the GOP as well. Several Democrat House members have been forced to oppose Mamdani, which could hurt them in both the primary and general. Meanwhile, to prevent a loss of support from leftists, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has endorsed him – without Mamdani returning the favor – thereby opening up an avenue for her likely Republican opponent, Elise Stefanik.

Finally, the assassination of Charlie Kirk and other acts of political terrorism by leftists — and the celebratory reactions of the left-wing partisans to these acts — will all be part of the GOP campaign.

The Democrats seem likely to make their 2026 campaign about: 1) Trump’s “dictatorship”; 2) the economy, which they claim is bad; 3) GOP-caused health care changes; 4) bigotry; and 5) checks and balances. The idea that Trump is instituting a dictatorship only has traction with the left-wing base, and the growing number of independents are largely immune to it after ten plus years of hearing Democrat propaganda. Contrary to CW, the economy is not yet hurting the president. In fact, the GOP has a big polling edge on this issue, as well as on crime, immigration, foreign conflicts, corruption, guns, and political extremism. The Democrats only have a significant lead on healthcare, along with the environment and women’s issues, with the latter two issues playing exclusively to leftist voters.

Poll: Dems Continue to Flounder on Top Issues As GOP Support Grows—Even on Gun Control

What I suspect will happen on the Democrat side is that the leftist base will push the Trump dictatorship angle, which they are convinced – with NO EVIDENCE – is a winning issue, rather than the healthcare issue, which is actually the stronger issue for them. And they are particularly hampered because anytime Donald Trump does something, the left-wing base will instinctively oppose him and scream “dictator” rather than act rationally. The bigotry charge will also be frequently employed – the Democrats have a long tradition of accusing the (CURRENT REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT) of hating blacks, women, Hispanics, gays, Jews, Muslims, etc. At the end of the campaign, the Democrats may also push the checks and balances argument – vote Democrat to prevent the GOP trifecta – as most out-parties traditionally do.

Some final points:

Donald Trump’s approval rating is pretty much hovering where it has always been during the second term, now at 45.5 percent approval to 52.5 percent disapproval.
There is more evidence of a realignment, with the aforementioned increase in the number of independents – during realignments, many voters shift from one party to independent – and the still increasing Republican registration gains – which may have been boosted by recent radical leftist acts, like the murder of Charlie Kirk.
The House is evenly divided, and has a boom or bust cycle, and the exact numbers that are won by the parties are often determined by the over- or under-exposure of the respective parties in the House. And the GOP is NOT overexposed.

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