Axios is reporting that the Trump political team has a five-step plan to keep the GOP in control of the U.S. Congress in 2026. The GOP majority now stands at 220 to 215 seats (not including vacancies). The Republicans are concerned that a House Democrat majority (or a Senate majority) is very likely to impeach the president, again, and otherwise block his agenda.

The five steps for this GOP plan are as follows:

1. Trying to prevent retirements;

2. Spending big;

3. Taking primary challengers off the table;

4. Raising gobs more money;

5. Ramping up recruiting.

It is rare for a U.S. President to be so focused on the smaller strategic political moves in attempting to hold onto the House. Normally, that is more the job of the House Speaker and NRCC Chairman, in this case, Mike Johnson and Richard Hudson, respectively.

We can see that this report may indeed be true based on recent events. For example, President Trump has already endorsed Rep. Mike Lawler, of NY, for reelection to his competitive House seat, when all of political DC knows that Lawler is sorely tempted to run for governor in NY. Trump has not made such an endorsement for Rep. Elise Stefanik of NY, who is also chomping at the bit to run for NY governor; presumably because her seat is more safely Republican. 

Trump has also endorsed a number of other GOP incumbents for both the House and Senate, including some who are not always that loyal to his agenda, to smooth their path to reelection.   

Certainly, if this reported plan is true, we can expect that Trump will endorse Rep. Don Bacon of NE soon. Bacon is a moderate Republican, and not a Trump fan, but he holds down a Democrat leaning district in NE – which the GOP legislature should have made safer – and is pretty much the only game in town if the GOP wants to hold the district.

RELATED: An Update on the 2026 Senate Races

Trump and Kemp Strategize for Georgia Senate Race—Here’s What’s at Stake in 2026

Of course, as I have said before, when it comes to House races, there is a boom or bust cycle, and the exact numbers that are won by the parties are often determined by the over- or under-exposure of the respective parties in the House. The Democrats won 41 seats in the House in 2018, then lost 14 and 9 seats in successive elections in 2020 and 2022, losing control during the latter year, only to pick up two seats in the 2024 elections (after endless, and almost surely tainted, counting in California). So, in the grand scheme of things, the GOP is not in yuge danger in 2026, unless a large number of members in competitive seats choose to leave their offices.  

There may also be some new redistricting, such as in OH, which will help the GOP.  

And the House races are always impacted by the approval numbers for the sitting President. Today, the RCP average has Trump’s approval up to 47.8 percent, versus 49.7 percent disapproval. The trend the past month has been good for the president, and his approval number is far above the 43 percent that is a warning sign for an incumbent.

Luckily, the Democrats are still stuck in their doom loop, so every Democrat running for office is trying to be a “dark woke” warrior who curses a lot, threatens to get in the face of those evil Trump Republicans, and foams at the mouth about Trump being a Hitler, a dictator, and an authoritarian. Unless the actual facts of the Trump administration change, that campaign dog just won’t hunt. Certainly, removing alien violent gangbangers and terror supporters from U.S. streets is not going to hurt Trump’s popularity, however much the Democrats try to make it happen.  

The Democrats are also spending $20 million to learn how to talk to male working-class voters. These types of schemes almost never work. (In reality, the Democrats need to find a successor with the empathic and vocal talents of this guy.)   

A big part of the GOP plan is fundraising, which really “is not my bag, baby!” But while I have never done any real fundraising, I do know that history is replete with political situations where one party had a heavy advantage over the money and still lost bigly because of the political tide or scandal. And here, many Democrats in political danger are flush with cash, like Sen. Jon Ossof of GA.  

Overall, I like that the GOP is mapping out a campaign plan to retain Congress. But it could be better. There are two additions I would make to the GOP plan, if I were designing it.  They are:

• The Democrats have refused to rule out their normal strategy of wading into both Democratic and Republican House primaries next year, “doing whatever it takes to flip the House.”  The GOP should follow this example.  

• Looking back to 1998, which was the only time in recent history when the president’s party picked up seats in a second mid-term, the GOP may want to try to demonize the Democrats regarding their clear preference to impeach President Trump. The CW from 1998 claims that a backlash against impeaching Clinton gave the Democrats an edge in the House elections. According to 1998 CNN exit polls, “(m)ost voters said they oppose efforts to impeach the president and thought Congress should drop the matter entirely. There was also disapproval for the way Republicans have handled the investigation. Overall, the effect nationwide appears to be a wash. Dissatisfaction cost both Republican and Democratic candidates votes in individual congressional districts.” Although I am not sure I believe the 1998 CW – the GOP won yuge in 1994 and then lost a few seats in 1996 and 1998, which I believe is a boom-and-bust example – it may be worth the Republicans making a play along these lines to see if it works.  

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