An Update on the 2026 Senate Races

The Democrats are spinning their tales about the coming 2026 mid-term elections. Politico has an article titled “The Republican Trainwreck of the 2026 Election Cycle” about the coming and supposed “trainwreck” for Republicans in the Senate race in Texas.

This is after the MSM/Democrats have spent the past month or two manufacturing a coming Democrat wave for 2026, based on some polling – but not all of it – and a few isolated (and mostly) local elections, in Florida, Iowa, Nebraska, and Pennsylvania.

The up-to-date national polling does not indicate a Democrat wave. Looking at the RCP average, we can see that President Donald Trump’s average approval has moved up substantially from when I last measured it, to 47.1 percent, with 49.7 percent disapproving. The danger zone for the president would probably be below 43 percent (consistently), as happened to President George W. Bush.

Trump and Kemp Strategize for Georgia Senate Race—Here’s What’s at Stake in 2026

Now, it’s time to reexamine the individual U.S. Senate races and update them for recent events.

Florida (special): Ashley Moody / Appointed in 2025 / Likely R

Moody was appointed, but she was elected statewide before as the Florida Attorney General, she is popular, the Democrats have collapsed in the state, and no strong Democrat is considering this race. The Democrats need to get lucky here to win the general.

Georgia: Jon Ossoff / 50.62% D / Tilt D

Ossoff is very endangered, but he has raised $11 million, a huge amount of early money for this race, and his most dangerous potential opponent, Gov. Brian Kemp, has declined to challenge him. Rep. Buddy Carter has launched a campaign, as well as a lower-level statewide official named John King. Others may join. Ossoff should have a narrow edge. The national environment will certainly matter in this race.

Illinois: Dick Durbin (retiring) / 54.93% D / Likely D

Although Trump won a respectable vote here in 2024, the action is in the Democrat primary, with Lt. Gov. Stratton, and Reps. Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi all announced. Stratton has the support of the Democrat Gov. Pritzker and Sen. Duckworth; Krishnamoorthi has $19.4 million in his campaign fund and has consistently raised more money than other members of Illinois’ congressional delegation. The GOP would have to get lucky here, as it has only a handful of congressmen, and these officials would be very unlikely to run in a tough race.

Iowa: Joni Ernst / 51.74% R / Likely R

Ernst is being challenged in the primary by a former state senator, who was last seen losing to Sen. Grassley in the primary. He will lose again. The Democrats have three state legislators who have announced. None of them is known or impressive. Ernst has a big edge.

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (retiring) / 57.76% R / Likely R

As expected, McConnell is retiring. With Democrat Gov. Andy Beshear staying out, the action will be in the Republican primary. Rep. Andy Barr is squaring off against former Kentucky Attorney General and former unsuccessful candidate for governor, Daniel Cameron. With a significant loss on Cameron’s political record, Barr has the edge, although other candidates still might enter.

Louisiana: Bill Cassidy / 59.32% R / Solid R

Cassidy has a primary problem. He voted to impeach Trump, and already, John Fleming, the state treasurer and former congressman, has announced. Other Republicans may join; perhaps Rep. Letlow? The Democrats are basically moribund on the federal level, so there is no danger of the seat flipping. Cassidy will probably try to curry favor with President Trump to avert any strong challenge.

Maine: Susan Collins / 50.98% R / Lean R

Even if the economy is bad, Collins should have the edge here. She has developed a strong, independent reputation, which is important in a Democrat state. Despite her votes against the GOP and Trump, she is unlikely to face repercussions in the primary. (As my old boss, Sen. Rick Santorum, once said, Collins is with us when we need her to be.) President Trump is unlikely to oppose her. Democrats who would be 1st tier challengers are the governor and two congressmen, who are unlikely to run. So, a 2nd tier challenger will have to step up. It should help Collins that she is the chair of the Appropriations Committee.

Massachusetts: Ed Markey / 66.15% D / Solid D

Markey, approaching 80 and firmly stuck in the decade of the 70s, is safe in the general election but may face a challenge in the primary. Rep. Jake Auchincloss, a former Marine, who is much younger, appears to be considering a race. Markey would start out with the edge, but as an outdated politician, he could be outhustled by a fresher face. No credible Republican is likely to run.

Michigan: Gary Peters (retiring) / 49.90% / Tilt D

With Peters retiring, a multitude of Democrats have jumped into the race. Rep. Haley Stevens is presumably a slim favorite, taking up the moderate lane and having the funding edge. There is also the socialist Israel hater, Abdul El-Sayd, a state senator named Mallory McMorrow, and the former State House Speaker, Joe Tate, who, as a black candidate, may have the edge in that significant community. Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who only narrowly lost the Senate race last year, is the favorite on the GOP side, with the backing of the Senate leadership. Rep. Bill Huizenga is still considering and would be a good candidate who has overperformed in his district. Assuming both parties get strong candidates – which seems likely – the Democrat should have a slight edge, assuming there is any sort of tide against the GOP.

Minnesota: Tina Smith (retiring) / 48.8% D / Likely D

The surprise retirement of Smith unexpectedly put this seat on the board. The Democrats have Rep. Angie Craig squaring off against Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. The former is a moderate who has won in competitive territory, while the latter is the left-wing candidate. Craig has the edge in the primary. So far, no significant Republican has entered, and with none known to be considering, the party may well punt on the race.

New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (retiring) / 56.64% D / Lean D

After Shaheen’s retirement, the Democrats have largely unified around Rep. Chris Pappas, who represents half the state. Former Gov. Sununu chose not to run, so the likely GOP candidate is former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who is expected to run. Brown ran against Shaheen in 2014, when he barely lost to her in a very pro-GOP environment. Pappas should have the edge over Brown this time around.

North Carolina: Thom Tillis / 48.69% R / Tilt R, or Toss Up if there is a bitter primary, a bad environment, or Gov. Cooper challenges him.

Tillis is in danger in both the primary and the general in a state that has only a slight Republican edge. He continues to earn GOP ire by sabotaging GOP nominees for federal positions, most recently with Ed Martin, the original attorney slotted for the USA in DC. This seems a questionable strategy, although so far, no other credible Republican has announced a challenge. Lara Trump has been mentioned, and polling shows she would start off with an edge if she ran. Former Democrat Gov. Roy Cooper has hinted that he may run against Tillis; if so, the general becomes a toss-up. Right now, former Democrat Rep. Wiley Nickel is in the race. If Tillis makes it to the general, a non-Cooper Democrat could also bump him off if the primary was especially bitter, or the environment is anti-GOP. The only reason I have the seat still tilting GOP is that in federal elections, the GOP seems to have a narrow edge.

Ohio (special): Jon Husted / Appointed in 2025 / Likely R

Husted was appointed as the sitting Lt. Gov. He also served in other minor statewide offices and in the state legislature. He was already preparing to run for governor, so he has already set up a statewide campaign. Husted is close to Gov. DeWine but also gets along with MAGA types. Ohio is probably a solid Republican state at this point, although it is possible that Trump not being on the ballot will hurt the GOP. Ousted (in 2024) Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown has hinted he might run; he would get a respectable number of votes, but few ousted incumbents are able to win back Senate seats. They are often considered yesterday’s news (and Brown is rather old at this point). If Brown doesn’t run, there is no obvious 1st tier candidate on the Democrat side.

South Carolina: Lindsey Graham / 54.44% R / Likely R

Graham is safe in the general election but could face an opponent from the conservative and/or MAGA side in the primary. However, Trump is unlikely to endorse another Republican in this race, as he and Graham get along, and Graham will have a lot of money to spend. Also, no prominent Republicans have yet announced their intention to challenge Graham. There are no strong Democrats to run against Graham.

Texas: John Cornyn / 53.51% R / Lean R

The supposed “trainwreck” for the GOP has Cornyn being challenged by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Rep. Wesley Hunt is also considering. Paxton starts with a polling edge over Cornyn, which is never a good sign for an incumbent. Paxton is considered more MAGA, but it is unclear that President Trump would support him over Cornyn. In fact, Trump might end up endorsing Cornyn, if he fears a bitter primary and a weaker general election candidate could cost the GOP this seat, as Paxton also has a corruption scandal hanging over his head. The Democrats will probably have a strong 2nd tier candidate here – likely either former Reps. Beto O’Rourke or Colin Allred, who are both considering – but in the last election, Trump and Sen. Cruz won more solidly than they did before. Despite Democrat hopes, regardless of who wins the primary, this race still leans Republican.

Virginia: Mark Warner / 55.99% / Likely D

Warner is very safe, unless (by then) former Gov. Glen Youngkin challenges him. Youngkin is unlikely to do so, as federal races are tough for the GOP to win, thanks to the massive presence of liberal leaning government workers in Northern Virginia. A 2nd or 3rd tier Republican will likely break 40%, but not by much.

Right now, the competitive seats, in the general election, are limited to Georgia, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Texas, and possibly Florida, Minnesota, and Ohio — five GOP seats, and four Democrat seats. With these numbers, the Democrats will need to pick up all five Republican seats without losing any of their own. In other words, a really bad national environment, or a lot of luck, is going to be necessary for them to win back the Senate.

So far, this does not appear to be happening.

Editor's Note: The Democrat Party has never been less popular as voters reject its globalist agenda.

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