With the 2024 elections rapidly receding in the background, political hacks like me are increasingly focused on the upcoming 2026 federal elections for all 435 U.S. House seats.

The conventional wisdom says that the opposition party is likely to gain seats in mid-terms for Congress, which would benefit the Democrats.  

In my view, this is probable, although big gains are not likely for the Democrats in 2026 because of where we are in the boom or bust cycle.

As I have said before, when it comes to House races, there is a boom or bust cycle, and the exact numbers that are won by the parties are often determined by the over- or under-exposure of the respective parties in the House.  Meaning if one party wins big one year, the other party usually (but not always) rebounds.  The rebound can be big or small.  If it is the latter, then the next successive election may continue that rebound.  

In 2024, the House party line-up stayed almost the same as in 2024, with the GOP majority dropping just 1 seat to end up at 220 seats.  This was after 2018, when the Democrats had won bigly, picking up 41 seats in the backlash against a unified GOP control of the federal government.  And then in 2020, when the GOP had won back 13 seats, despite Trump narrowly and controversially losing the presidency, and in 2022, when the GOP won an additional 10 seats, giving them a very narrow majority.  

Note that redistricting is a possibility in some states, like OH, where the GOP may help itself to an additional seat or two.  The Democrats will squawk about this, but in 2024, it was Democrat-led redistricting – sometimes hidden in supposedly independent commissions – that allowed them to pick up that 1 seat gain, as the GOP substantially underperformed its percentages in CA, CT, IL, MA, NJ, NM, and NY while only benefiting from gerrymandering in NC (David Wasserman has foolishly reversed the situation).

For once, Wikipedia is helpful, as they already have constructed a page for the 2026 House elections.  Considering recent history, the GOP starts off in a relatively good place.  The GOP has far more targets in the House, with their possibilities being located in CA (9, 13, 21, 27, 45, 47, 49), FL (23), IN (1), ME (2), MI (3, 8), NC (1), NJ (3, 5), NM (2), NV (1, 3, 4), NY (3, 4, 18), OH (9, 13), OR (5), PA (17), TX (28, 34), VA (7), and WA (3, 8).  

Meanwhile, the Democrats could conceivably pick up some 20 seats, with their possible targets being in AZ (1, 6), CA (22, 41), CO (8), IA (1, 3), MI (7, 10), MT (1), NE (2), NJ (7), NY (17), PA (1, 7, 8, 10), VA (2), and WI (1, 3).  

At the top of the list for both parties are the 3 Republica-held seats that went for Vice President Harris, and the 13 Democrat seats that went for President Trump.

A lot will depend on the national mood in a year plus.  Currently, the Gallup survey shows 46 percent of respondents either consider themselves a Republican or a Republican-leaning independent, while 45 percent say they consider themselves a Democrat or a Democrat-leaning independent.  This is the third consecutive year in which the GOP has edged out the Democrats.  This is unprecedented in modern times, as prior to that, the Republicans last held a plurality support in 1991 — the first year Gallup conducted the survey — when 48 percent of Americans identified with the GOP and 44 percent identified with the Democrats.

Further, because of the realignment that has occurred, “(t)he big picture looks great for the GOP”,  with the battleground map expanding in favor of Republicans.  This is because House districts with a large percentage of Hispanic voters, Asian voters, or Jewish voters are becoming more competitive for the GOP.  The numbers have actually shifted quite dramatically and could gallop even further into Republican territory.

Exciting stuff for political hacks like me.  As someone always says, we will have to see what happens.