This was the last big one. The end of the primary, for all intents and purposes. A few months ago this was what many of us expected to be the conservative last stand, when Cruz would finally possibly break Trump completely. Or at least send this to a brokered convention. Those hopes died some weeks ago, and yesterday, they were buried, the earth was salted, and the people who dug the grave were blinded and had their tongues removed. It’s that over.
The big news, of course, was the Democrat race, where everyone was waiting to see if Bernie Sanders would accept the will of the party bosses and the MSM and step aside. Delightfully, he did not. Sanders voters just do not trust Hillary Clinton, and clearly neither does he. It’s their one virtue, but a darn good one. And a great source of schadenfreude for us.
Nevertheless, Clinton is the presumptive nominee. If super delegates were to go against historic precedent and change their votes to support the guy losing instead of the gal winning, then technically he could still pull an upset. But Bernie, buddy, pal, it ain’t gonna happen.
With all that said, and for the last time …
Here are our projections.
Montana (DEMOCRAT): Senator Bernie Sanders won Montana with 51.05% of the vote. Former Secretary Hillary Clinton lost, coming in at 44.62%. So far, 123,573 votes were cast and counted.
Montana is a proportional primary. As a result, Bernie picked up 6 delegates, while Hillary grabbed 5.
Montana (REPUBLICAN): Donald Trump is of course unopposed in the Republican primary. He took 73.7% of the vote. Senator Ted Cruz picked up 9.4%. 154,493 votes have been counted so far.
Montana is a winner-take-all primary for Republicans. As a result, Trump adds 27 delegates.
North Dakota (DEMOCRAT): Bernie Sanders trounced Clinton in North Dakota, taking a whopping 64% of the vote, to her 26%. About 400 votes were cast in the state.
Only a portion of the state’s delegates are assigned based on the vote. We predict the vote to break out 18 to Bernie and 5 to Hillary.
South Dakota (DEMOCRAT): Hillary won South Dakota with 51% of the vote, to Bernie’s 49%. 53,013 votes were cast.
South Dakota is proportional for Democrats. As a result, they each take 10 delegates.
South Dakota (REPUBLICAN): Donald Trump only pulled 67% of the vote, with Senator Cruz taking 17% and Gov. Kasich pulling 16%. 66,878 votes were cast.
South Dakota is winner-take-all for Republicans. As a result, Donald Trump gets all 29 delegates.
New Mexico (DEMOCRAT): Hillary Clinton won with 51.5% of the vote. Bernie Sanders came in second with 48.5%. 214,522 votes have been counted so far.
New Mexico is a proportional primary. As a result, Hillary will grab 16 delegates and Bernie will take 15. Hillary also takes a probable additional 7 soft-pledged and ends up with 23 on the day.
New Mexico (REPUBLICAN): Donald Trump, again, is unopposed in the Republican primary. He took 70.7% of the vote. Senator Ted Cruz picked up a decent 13.3%. 104,29 votes have been counted so far.
Trump adds 19 delegates.
New Jersey (DEMOCRAT): In the first of the two big prizes of the night, Hillary Clinton won with a very convincing 63.2 of the vote. Bernie Sanders lost with only 37%. 857,860 votes have been counted so far.
New Jersey is a proportional primary. As a result, Hillary will grab 70 delegates and Bernie will take 47. Hillary also takes a probable additional 12 additional and ends up with 82 on the day.
New Jersey (REPUBLICAN): The presumptive nominee Donald Trump grabbed 80.6% of the vote, with Gov. John Kasich coming in second at 13.3%. 435,212 were cast and counted so far.
Trump takes 51 delegates.
California (DEMOCRAT): The Big One. The vote is not tallied yet in California, with only 68% reporting at the time of this posting. Therefore these numbers are subject to change. But as it stand,s Hillary Clinton won California with 56.14% of the vote. Bernie Sanders came in second with 42.89%. Approximately 3,100,000 votes were cast at last count.
California is a proportional primary. Because of that, there simply aren’t hard delegate projections to make yet. A soft estimate from The Green Papers puts them at 272 for Hillary Clinton, 203 for Bernie Sanders.
California (REPUBLICAN): Sigh. Trump nabs 75.7%. Kasich got 11.2% and Ted Cruz 9%.
Trump adds 166
[As always, please note these are the best projections based on information available at the time of the posting and are subject to change.]
And now for the big moment: the delegate totals.
The Day: RedState estimates the new total delegates to date (for the four delegate leaders) at:
DONALD TRUMP: 1,532
SEN. TED CRUZ: 569
SEN. MARCO RUBIO: 166
GOV. JOHN KASICH: 164
That’s the ball game. Trump is now well over the number of delegates needed, even if some of those Pennsylvania delegates and others credited by the media but who technically can change their mind do, in fact, do that, he’s still got the first ballot win. There are always rules junkies and math nerds who tell you about little things that can change here or there, and maybe that will happen, but as a general point of reality, Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson.
Sorry, everyone on Earth.
Sources include CNN, AP, The Green Papers, Bing, and campaign data.