We have one week to go before the 2026 election is over. We may not know all of the conclusions on Tuesday; some states take an inexplicably long time counting ballots. My own Alaska not only has ranked-choice voting and the multiple rounds of counting involved with that dumb idea, but we also contend with reporting from some pretty remote villages and settlements. But, on November 3, one day from the date I write this, the official Election Day happens, and by the next morning, we should have a pretty good idea what the 120th Congress should look like, along with a bunch of other state and local races.
Here's the thing: We simply cannot afford to let the 120th Congress be a Democrat-controlled Congress. We have to win this, and we have to win it beyond the margin of fraud. Why, you ask? Why is this midterm election so important?
Here's why, and I'm going to tell you.
The obvious results of a Democrat sweep here are troubling enough. One may as well fit President Trump and the Trump administration with manacles. A Senate majority will mean no more judicial appointments. The filibuster will be eliminated, on Day One, or soon enough that it won't matter. The Democrats won't be able to stack the Supreme Court with Donald Trump still in the White House, but believe you me, they will be setting the stage for it. A House majority will mean the money taps will be shut off for every Trump program. The military will be slashed. Endless entitlement programs will be refueled. President Trump still has his veto pen, but Democrats will be able to attach cuts in funding to other things that have to pass. They may be crazy, but they're not stupid; at least, not all of them are.
We simply can't afford this. And, I don't need to remind you of the disaster a 2028 presidential victory for the Democrats would be; a stacked Supreme Court, adding new states, banning voter ID requirements, pursuing massive lawfare against former Trump officials; if you don't believe me on that, just look at the rhetoric coming from the left. They have said as much themselves.
So here we are, on the ragged edge.
Polling has been haphazard in the last few cycles, but what we do see right now is troubling. The RealClear Polling averages on both the House and Senate races are showing some real nail-biters. The current total, as of this writing, has the Democrats holding 227 seats in the House, with the Republicans at 182; 26 races are tossups. If these polls are accurate, the Republicans can win every single tossup race and still lose control of the House. The Senate outlook is a little better. This projection shows the Democrats holding 46 seats to the Republicans' 44, with 10 tossups; seven of those are traditionally Republican voting states. But the Republicans have to pick up seven Senate wins to break the tie, where the Democrats only have to take five.
Now, we're right to be skeptical about the polling. Polls have, for the last several cycles, badly underestimated Republican turnout.
But do we want to bet our country on that?
There are bright spots. Michigan is, as many suspect, a closer race than we might think. There's a real chance for a win there. Illegal immigration is still a hot issue, and it's one that heavily favors Republicans. And it certainly doesn't hurt that the Democrats have really picked some first-rate nutcases for candidates and supporters in some of these places.
But we cannot afford to leave anything lying on the table. Like most midterm elections, this will be a turnout election. Since 2018, in the United States, from Congress down to the local level, there have been 660 elections decided by 10 votes or fewer. 394 of these were decided by fewer than five votes. 94 were decided by a single vote.
We can't afford for anyone to stay home. We can't afford for anyone to not vote. We can't afford to be squeamish about any candidate who may waver from anyone's ideal. We have to win. It has come to this. We're out of time to debate. We're out of time to argue. We have to win this. For the future of the republic, for our kids, for our grandchildren, we have to win this.
So vote. Take all your Republican and conservative friends to vote. (If you have any Democrat friends, leave them alone. Let them figure it out for themselves.) If your car breaks down, get out your bicycle. If you don't have a bicycle, walk. If you can't walk, crawl. If you have to crawl on your hands and knees through ten miles of scrap iron, rock salt and busted glass to vote, then crawl through it. Vote early if you can, and bank that vote. But vote. At all costs, at all hazards, vote.
This, and the 2028 elections, will chart the path forward for our nation for a generation, maybe longer. So, on Tuesday, kiss your kids and grandkids, if you have them, and go vote. You are, after all, doing it for them.
Let's win this. Let's beat the odds. Let's prove the pollsters wrong. Let's prove the socialists and the commies wrong. Let's prove all the leftists wrong.
Vote! Vote! Vote!