Speaker Johnson Says Dem-Favoring House Polls Are Faulty

There are plenty of reasons for Republicans to temper their optimism for their prospects of holding the House of Representatives in next week's midterm elections. The polls all look to favor a Democrat takeover, at least of the House, if not the Senate as well. Plenty of talking heads and pundits are saying the same thing. 

Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rep. Mike Johnson, (LA-04) is more confident than most that the GOP will hold the House. On Sunday, in a conversation with Fox News' Shannon Bream, he laid out his reasons.

Americans face a simple question: what is best for me and my family, my children, and my aging parents? Republicans offer common sense solutions and a steady hand at the wheel — while the Democrats are going crazy. My full conversation with @ShannonBream on @FoxNewsSunday 📺👇 https://t.co/9jelB4iPWO

— Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) October 25, 2026

Here's the relevant portion of that conversation.

Shannon Bream: Joining us now, with an optimistic take, despite the polls, is House Speaker Mike Johnson. Welcome back, Mr. Speaker.

Speaker Mike Johnson: Hey Shannon, good to be with you.

SB: OK, so let's talk through a couple of our new Fox News power rankings. We've got this, when it comes to the House, 219 seats solidly Democrat, 198 Republican, and that puts 18 as tossups. Also in our power ranking, this is a forecast, for election night, if things go really well for Democrats, they end up with 237 seats, a good GOP night, our forecasters have as 219 for Democrats, meaning you'd still be in the minority, in either scenario. You say those predictions (are) wrong. Why?

MJ: Those polls are wrong. They're based on faulty analysis. Look, in the last week, Shannon, you've had two polling organizations nationwide be exposed for completely fraudulent numbers, and the more traditional researchers, and poll organizations, are not acknowledging that they are under sampling Republicans. In fact, CNN ran a story less than a week ago and they said 14 out of the last 16 October polls, in those elections, they under sampled Republicans by an average of four points. Republicans are no longer responding to polls. Look, I'm going all around the country, Shannon, I've been in 21 states, 39 districts, just in the last three weeks. I'm going to the swing districts, places where we're going to flip blue seats to red. And we're having hundreds of people turn out for these events, it's excitement level like 2024, and this is what I do. When I'm these big arenas, Shannon, I ask for hands. Show me your hand if you've answered a poll in the last six months. They will be like three hands, among 300 people. I'm telling you, these polls are off. All of them. Because they're using faulty analysis.

It would be lovely if the Speaker is correct here. He may be — we will know in a little over a week. And, having almost been to the Trump rally in Wasilla not long ago, I can tell you that the people that came in from all over the Great Land to see the President speak very likely outnumbered the city of Wasilla's population. Yes, enthusiasm is high. 

But the enthusiasm on the other side is high, as well. 

Midterms are always a challenge for the party in power. And, yes, since 2016, the pollsters in general have gotten some key elections badly wrong. But here's the thing: Midterm elections are generally turnout elections. Speeches are great, polls may or may not be accurate, and bear in mind, most voters don't pay too much attention to polling. And, yes, Republicans, for whatever reasons, tend not to answer polls. A shift of 3-4 points from what the polling averages are right now could turn the tide, as Speaker Johnson maintains it will. 

But the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day, now just a few days away. Getting butts in booths is the only thing that matters. Speaker Johnson is right to put on an optimistic face; that's leadership. Ultimately, though, this is all going to be up to us, to win, and to win beyond the margin of fraud. 

It's coming down to the wire. Vote! Vote! Vote!

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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