Ukrainian Drones Devastate Russian Oil Infrastructure, Trigger New Russian Export Freeze

The ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War has been, for some time now, something of a modern, high-tech version of the Great War in some respects. The lines have mostly stabilized, and the whole thing has become a war of attrition. One would normally think that this placed the odds in favor of Russia, as they have many more young men to send into the meat grinder, along with more equipment and supplies.

But Ukraine has been pretty effective at hitting Russia's supply lines, most particularly, their fuel. Without fuel, a modern army is just a bunch of guys with rifles standing around, the vaunted Russian tanks are reduced to pillboxes, and the whole thing grinds to a halt. That would seem to be Ukraine's goal.

This week, a major Ukrainian offensive, carried out mostly by drone attacks, has reportedly damaged 21 Russian tanker ships and hit refining and storage targets deep in Russian territory.

Ukraine launched one of its broadest recent drone offensives against Russia’s maritime and energy networks this week, claiming strikes on 21 vessels in three days as attacks on major refineries deep inside Russia intensified pressure on Moscow’s fuel supplies.
The wave of attacks offered a striking display of Ukraine’s growing long-range capabilities.

It's unclear which side is fighting harder, but at the moment, it looks a lot like Ukraine is fighting smarter.

Ukraine is increasingly forcing Russia to defend refineries, airfields, shipping routes and other infrastructure far beyond the front. Kyiv has not achieved a comparable breakthrough in the grinding ground campaign, and Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian cities. But repeated long-range strikes have begun disrupting fuel production and maritime logistics while imposing costs on parts of Russia that were once largely insulated from the fighting.
On Tuesday, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces said nine Russian-linked vessels were struck in the Sea of Azov on Wednesday, bringing the number targeted over 72 hours to 21.
Commander Robert "Magyar" Brovdi said the targets included 19 oil tankers, a cargo ship and a ferry operating near Russian-occupied Crimea, according to East2West news agency. He described the campaign against the fleet as reaching an "industrial scale."
Ukrainian and Russian officials confirmed that the overnight offensive targeted tankers, refineries, pipeline facilities and a military airfield across several Russian regions.

Russia has reacted by freezing all exports, especially of diesel fuel; remember, armies run on diesel fuel. (And coffee, but that's a story for another time.)

That may be the key for Ukraine. They can't beat Russia in a knife fight. But they may be able to cut the supply lines.

Trump: Ukraine to Get License to Manufacture Patriot Anti-Ballistic Missile Interceptors

Here's the thing: Every protracted war, every time, is won or lost by logistics. Not tactics, not strategy, but logistics. That's how the United States won in World War II, especially in the Pacific theater; it was due to our industrial might. My uncle, a Marine veteran of Iwo Jima, was fond of repeating the old saw that in early 1945, one could walk from Pearl Harbor to Tokyo by stepping from deck to deck on American warships.

Now, Ukraine is targeting the Russian logistics train, especially fuel, and that's a pretty smart move. Ukraine will never force Russia to any kind of surrender; Ukraine won't get Crimea back, no matter what else happens. But if they can wear Russia down, they may be able to at least get a deal that will return things to the status quo ante 2022, which I would still maintain is probably the best they can hope for.

And, any such deal will likely result mostly in both sides catching their breath and building up for Round Two. That's a state of affairs that is as old as Europe.

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