2026 Threat Assessment: Illegal Migration, Drug Trafficking Down

On Wednesday, the 2026 (Unclassified) Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community was released. As is usually the case, there's a lot of information in there, and a lot of it represents considerable improvement over previous threat assessments.

Let's look at a couple of the high points. First, illegal immigration.

Foreign public perceptions of stricter U.S. migration policies and U.S. and regional border security enforcement have contributed to a sharp decrease in migrant encounters at the U.S.Mexico border since early 2025. These perceptions probably will continue to serve as a deterrent for migrants seeking to illegally enter the U.S. Most cases of migration are a matter of economic migration. Some migrants are likely to continue to see the U.S. as a preferred destination over regional alternatives despite the increased risk of failure, because of proximity, established routes and smuggling networks, family ties in the U.S., the lure of employment or government programs and benefits, improved social conditions, and better public security.

Illegal immigration is down - but, we should note, so is the number of illegal immigrants already in the country, many of whom chose to take a cash payment and a free plane ticket to just go home. Enforcement is up, and it could hardly have gone any lower than it was during the Biden administration. After all, when you're at rock bottom, the only way you can go is up. So this is a win, but there's a lot more work to be done.

Another key area of improvement is the reduction of drug trafficking.

Fentanyl and other synthetic opioids remain the most lethal of drugs trafficked into the country, causing more than 38,000 U.S. deaths during the 12-month period from September 2024 to September 2025. This represents a nearly 30 percent decrease in synthetic opioid-related overdose deaths, according to CDC data. Separately, fentanyl seizures by weight have decreased 56 percent at the U.S.–Mexico border since President Trump took office, because of increased U.S. and Mexican counterdrug pressure as well as cartel infighting in the interior of Mexico. Although we do not know the total amount of fentanyl entering from Canada to the U.S., information from Customs and Border Protection (CBP) seizures on the border shows an increase during the past three years from 2 pounds to 77 pounds seized at the northern border, in contrast to more than 11,000lbs seized in 2025 alone at the Mexican border.

Note the shift in tactics by the drug traffickers; there has actually been an increase in intercepted drugs, specifically fentanyl, on the northern border. This is likely a result of the Trump administration's crackdown on the southern border, not to mention the ongoing detonation of drug-smuggling boats in the Caribbean and the Pacific. But Canada, we might note, has extremely lax immigration policies - and we share with them a long, long border, much of it unguarded, much of it through wilderness. That will require some reassignment of forces, and probably some technological solutions.

And finally, the big, nasty elephant in the room: Terrorism.

The U.S. continues to face a complex and evolving threat landscape with a geographically diverse set of Islamist terrorist actors seeking to propagate their ideology globally and harm Americans, even as al-Qa‘ida and ISIS are significantly weaker than at their respective peaks during the early 2000s and mid-2010s.

And, of course, these groups' primary sponsor, their primary source of weapons, munitions, training, and various supplies, is in the process of being taken apart by the suitable application of high explosives. That may make next year's threat assessment reflect an even greater improvement in this area.

You can view the entire report here. It's a long read, but worth setting aside some time for.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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