We can hope that these malcontents will be satisfied by marching, waving signs, and shouting, but there's always the possibility that this won't be enough. We have recent precedents in the 2020 "Summer of Love" riots and insurrections, which were probably treated a little too kindly by local, state, and even federal authorities. That may be a big reason we are in the situation we are today; in Seattle, a portion of the city was taken over by an armed mob led by a rifle-toting warlord, and that situation went on for some time until a lack of supplies forced the mob to give up.

Now, the riots and rebels are shouting about the federal government detaining and repatriating illegal aliens. They're doing more than shouting, too; cars have been burned, and law enforcement officers attacked. The latest such attack could have had deadly consequences.

The Department of Homeland Security on Wednesday announced that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrested a previously deported illegal immigrant from Mexico after he allegedly threw a Molotov cocktail at law enforcement amid rioting in Los Angeles on June 7.

[...]

Emiliano Garduno-Galvez is charged with attempted murder after throwing the Molotov cocktail.

This goblin, had he just a few more active brain cells, may have come up with a plan that worked, instead of an ineffectual effort that just landed him in the hoosegow. Fortunately, nobody was hurt, but combat - and this is combat of a sort - is a terribly Darwinian environment. The ones who survive or, in this case, escape arrest, are the ones capable of learning, and learning fast.

See Also: Another Violent LA Riots Illegal Gets Nabbed by ICE, and This Guy's Gonna Wish He Stayed in Mexico

Which raises the question: How bad could this get? In considering questions like this, it's always good to consider the worst case. Plan for the worst and hope for the best, as the saying goes, and that means having some idea of what the worst could be. And no, California's being saddled with an incompetent governor isn't the worst case, or at least, not all of it.

See Also: Make No Mistake: Newsom's 'Riot' Address Wasn't About LA—It Was His 1st Presidential Campaign Speech

I think we all know what the worst case could be. How might we arrive at that?

I can think of one major turning point, and it bears thinking for just a moment on how close we came to this in the summer of 2020 in Seattle. That turning point comes when some of the mob turn up with weapons. Not fireworks, not rocks, not chunks of pavement, but guns.

Once shots are fired, there's no going back. Any police force or military members are going to return fire, and given that most of them are more disciplined and have at least some weapons training, they are going to quickly overwhelm the opposition in a modern-day reproduction of Napoleon's "whiff of grapeshot."

This could escalate rapidly. This is how civil wars start. And while California is suffering under this now, other states are already preparing, with the intent of being far less warm and fuzzy than the once-Golden State.

See Also: Texas Gov. Abbott Not Waiting for Riots to Come to Him—He's Getting Ready for Them in Advance

What are the odds? I think today we are closer to a second civil war than we have been in some time, but I still think the odds are less than one in ten. A year ago, I would have said one in a hundred. Such a civil war wouldn't be like the first. It would be more like the Spanish Civil War, the conflict in the Balkans in the late '90s, or the "Troubles" in Northern Ireland. There won't be any massed armies maneuvering on the open field of battle. This conflict will be fought in our city streets, in our neighborhoods, amongst us; our children will see it, our neighbors may well be on the other side from us; conflicts like this breed hatreds that could last for generations. The end would likely come with our major cities largely destroyed, and may well result in the end of the United States as we know it.

Remember, this is the worst case as I see it. I write alternative history fiction, so imagining such outcomes is in my nature.

It's far more likely that these riots and, yes, rebellions will be brought to heel without any such eventuality. But, as I wrote above, plan for the worst, hope for the best; take stock of your situation, your location, your stocks of food, water, and so on, and plan accordingly.