Starting a family is expensive. Two of our four kids have families, three kids each. When they were contemplating children, their mother and I advised them, "If you wait until you can afford a child, you'll never have one." People starting a family are generally young, generally struggling up the first few rungs of the employment ladder, and occasionally are on the ramen/peanut butter diet for days and weeks at a time.

Prices in baby goods - car seats, strollers, disposable diapers, cribs, and so on - can hit a young family pretty hard.

A lot of those baby goods are made in China. And the trade squabbles between the United States and China are starting to make themselves felt in the baby-goods market. And that presents an interesting dilemma for the Trump administration.

The turmoil has been particularly acute for an industry that was able to carve out significant relief from tariffs during President Donald Trump’s first term by citing care and safety concerns. At the time, high chairs, car seats, play yards and toys were all exempt from 25 percent tariffs on China. (Although cribs, bassinets and parts for car seats were not.)

This time, the White House has made no such exceptions, despite lobbying from House Democrats, manufacturers and trade groups. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, during a congressional hearing Wednesday, said an exemption for car seats and other children’s necessities is “under consideration,” though he did not offer details on timing.

There are a couple of things to consider here.

On the one hand, any price rise from tariffs will indeed hit the young parents more than their elders. An exemption from the China tariffs on baby car seats, bottles, diapers, strollers, and so on could not only help these young families financially, but could also make it easier to procure the essentials for an infant's safety (like, say, car seats) and so on.

On the other hand, China is showing signs of slipping. Factories are closing down. The Chinese people are taking to the streets. President Trump may well see this as the time to bear down hard, to take advantage of the primary leverage we have with China: They need us more than we need them.

If President Trump decides to exempt some products, as he did in his first term, it would help some members of a valuable constituency - yes, that's a political consideration, but that's part of the game. But China may see that as America backing down.

If President Trump decides to stay the course, some young families may find their diaper bill going up, but Chairman Xi's feet will still be held to that fire, and it may drive China to a trade deal more advantageous for us.

See Also: Winning: Trump Admin Announces Yuge Trade Pact With United Kingdom

Breaking: China Announces It's Coming to the Tariff Negotiating Table This Weekend

In the end, it's President Trump's decision. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent is implying that a decision is in the offing on removing the tariffs on baby goods. There are ups and downs either way. 

But, as we noted on Thursday, the Trump administration has already struck a trade deal with the United Kingdom. And talks with China are beginning in Switzerland this week. The policy appears to be working. The dominoes, as I wrote earlier, are starting down.

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