Could a Michigan Senate Seat Be in Play This November?

I have to tell you that 2024 politically is turning out to be a bit of a roller coaster nationally, and even in the fairly blue state of Michigan. Now, before the rabid Michigan folks crawl out of the woodwork and complain that Michigan is a RED state let me just throw a couple of reminders at you.

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Counties do not vote, people do.

Data suggests we are a blue state that trended purple for a glorious moment in 2016 with Donald Trump winning by 11,000 votes. Here is the proof.


 Michigan Is a BLUE State and Lying About It Won't Change That Fact


From that article...

So, let me start with some basic facts to make sure we are all on the same page.

Michigan, since the 2002 election of Jennifer Granholm and her re-election in 2006, has elected progressive-leaning candidates. The hiccup of “republican” Rick Snyder who raised your taxes, let the Flint water debacle happen, and was pro-abortion, was Democrat-Lite. Now with Whitmer elected in 2018 and just re-elected in 2022, this trend continues with the state’s chief executive.

Michigan has not elected a Republican United States Senator since 1994 with Spencer Abraham, who was defeated by now-retiring Senator Debbie Stabenow. In case you are wondering how long that is, due to your time in the state’s floundering public school system, in 2024, it will be a full 30 years since you sent a member of the GOP to D.C. to occupy a seat in the upper chamber of Congress.

Please don’t use the excuse that the GOP has picked establishment hacks to face off against hapless Democrats like Stabenow and Peters. You had newly elected (barely) to a House seat John James, face off against both Senators two years apart and lose. In fact, James only won his seat last November by just under 2,000 votes.

Michigan Republicans just lost both the State House and Senate control for the first time since before John Engler left office. The only bright spot the GOP had was control of the legislature, and now that the redistricting is out of the hands of the legislature and given to a group of citizens who are picked through some weird process, you can bet the GOP won’t be getting a favorable district any time soon.

Those are all just facts that are verifiable. We can discuss the reasons why this has occurred and the overall cause and effect, but what I just wrote above is factual history.

My friends, how is Michigan a red state when we haven’t elected a conservative Republican since 1998 with John Engler nor a United States Senator since 1994 with Spencer Abraham? Republicans have lost legislative control of both Chambers for the first time in over 30 years, and while it’s only by one seat in each chamber, the redistricting that was done after the 2020 census does not look promising for the next 10 years.

Now, some might say, well, Donald Trump won here in 2016 and it gave him the presidency. Trump won that election in Michigan by just under 11,000 votes out of a vote total of over 4.5 million. Just four years later, Trump lost Michigan by 154,000 votes, thus once again throwing Michigan for a POTUS election to a blue state from the ever-so-slight shade of purple it was for a mere second in 2016.

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I know that is a lot, but if you want Trump to win here and have a chance at electing a United States senator with an R after their name for the first time in 30 years, it is time for us to be honest with the past.

So I'm pleased that it is looking hopeful in Michigan.

Ahead of the fall election, Senate Republicans' political arm is making nearly $10 million in TV and digital ad reservations in Michigan, where it's supporting former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers of Brighton for U.S. Senate, according to a GOP source familiar with the total.

The sum is part of the first round of independent expenditures by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which said it begin placing the reservations Thursday in four states: Michigan, Ohio, Nevada and Arizona. The ads would begin running in August, the source said.The move is another signal national Republicans are serious about investing in Michigan's Senate race this fall, even though the state isn't considered a top-tier contest. Earlier this month, the NRSC announced it's spending a seven-figure sum of money on a field program in the state to knock doors.

This is better news than I was hoping for as I was looking at the landscape six months ago. Usually, money promised to candidates in Michigan running for statewide office fails to materialize and the Republican candidate winds up losing by between five to seven points. That they are already reserving $10 million worth of ads for the fall is promising, given that is more than we typically get in the Great Lake State.

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Plus, there are a number of viable candidates on the GOP side which is also unusual for this state and I am pleased with that as well.

I'll take that any day over the alternative.

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