Latest Trafalgar Poll out of Michigan Sounds an Alarm for Sleepy Joe Biden

AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

The long and winding road of the Presidential race is coming to an end and once again for Donald Trump, it looks like it will end tonight for him in the great State of Michigan, just as it did four years ago. Trump’s schedule today has two Michigan stops and throw in his one yesterday in Metro Detroit, this shows how important the President’s re-election campaign considers the Great Lake State to be.

Here are his final stops today.

11/02: Fayetteville, NC 11:30 ET 11/02:
Scranton, PA 2:00 ET 11/02:
Traverse City, MI 5:00 ET 11/02:
Kenosha, WI 7:00 CT 11/02:
Grand Rapids, MI 10:30 ET

Looks like in Michigan this could be paying off.

The latest poll from the Trafalgar Group has come out and it shows Trump adding to his small lead but a lead nonetheless. Trafalgar was one of the few polling firms in 2016 that predicted Trump would win four years ago and they are seeing it the same way as we stand on the day before the election.

The poll was conducted on Friday, Oct 30th, and Saturday, Oct 31st, and pretty much goes against the grain of all the national polls that have been conducted for the past week showing Biden with a sizable lead in the state.

Here is the basic breakdown of the 1033 people who were polled for this

Donald Trump

Joe Biden

Jo Jorgensen


3.0% Undecided

Couple of things I noticed about this latest and most likely last poll for this election season here in Michigan are…

First off, who in the hell is undecided still in this state or for that matter ANYWHERE? I know it is a small amount but I just can’t fathom that out of the 1033 people that talked with here that almost 31 people (30.99) are walking around not sure of who to vote for. I know that I wrote about the shy Trump voter a couple of weeks ago Could It Be Possible That Donald Trump Wins Because of the Shy Vote? but undecided still. C’MON, MAN.

Also, the Jorgensen vote dipped below 2% which shows me that the Libertarian component has decided to move to one of the other candidates at least for this election. Which way is anybody’s guess but in a state where four years ago Trump only won by 11,000 votes, the old cliche of “Every Vote Counts” is very true.

Plus a little farther down in the tabs we find that in this polling run, Trafalgar polled almost ten percent more women than men 54.1 to 45.9. Does this mean that suburban women don’t hate Trump nearly as much as some media reports have suggested?

One last thing that my colleague and pollster extraordinaire Scott Hounsell pointed out is that this latest poll is ALMOST outside the margin of error at 2.97%.

Does this all mean that Donald Trump is set to repeat his upset win in Michigan 4 years ago tomorrow night? If he does and once again wins the Presidency as a heavy underdog, the world of polling will be shaken once again and have a lot of explaining to do. Also, who knows, possibly Nate Silver will have to concede that Trafalgar is much better than he has been saying.

Get ready for a LONG night tomorrow kids, this one won’t be called early.

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