I know that this sounds like a crazy question to ask up in the title, but in the afterglow of the pretty boring debate last night I need to refocus over the next 26 days on how the campaign is going and this will do it.
I have been following the national and state polls and have been a bit shocked by the lead that is being given to Joe Biden, and I know that this is same exact pattern that happened in 2016, so let’s dispense with that for the sake of this article. Yet there is something I have seen mentioned in two of the latest polls that has me wondering if something is being skewered. Could people not be telling others that they are voting for Trump whether that is your neighbor or a pollster?
This sure as hell seems counterintuitive to me being that a LOT of Trump supporters are pretty upfront about their support for the 45th President and in no way shape or form seem ‘shy’ about it. However, I am into information, and now that two different polls have mentioned this, maybe it is a thing.
Here is example number one from the Express in the U.K. which has Trump up overall in the polls:
While other polls have Biden ahead, the Democracy Institute, which correctly predicted Brexit and Trump’s win in 2016, only considers people who identify as “likely voters” rather than all registered voters and also asks about the so-called shy vote. This shows that 77 percent of Trump supporters would not admit it to friends or family members.
Q “Are you comfortable with your relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how you vote?”
Trump voters: Yes = 22%
Biden voters: Yes = 87%
So according to this poll, Trump is winning overall in the popular vote and over 300 in the electoral vote, yet over 78% of the Trump supporters do not want people to know they are voting for him. Like I said above, it seems to be that the enthusiasm for Trump by his supporters is not even trying to be hidden by them. He has the most loyal enthusiastic base I have ever seen.
Now in the Fox News poll, they have Trump getting beaten nationally by Biden but once again there is this “shy” segment that won’t talk about their support of the President.
An increasing number think neighbors support Trump. By an 11-point margin, more think their neighbors are for Trump than Biden. In August, that was a 5-point spread. Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox News survey with Republican Daron Shaw, believes more voters thinking their neighbors are for Trump is due to, “a combination of 2016 PTSD and liberal anxiety.” More Democrats say their neighbors back Trump (22 percent) than Republicans think theirs support Biden (9 percent), and very liberals (34 percent) are nearly three times as likely as very conservatives (13 percent) to think others are voting for the competition.
In previous elections, I could see where people supporting either candidate would rather just keep it to themselves. I’m just having a hard time wrapping my head around the (possible) fact that Donald Trump supporters are shrinking violets and won’t tell their neighbors or pollsters that they support #Don45. Particularly when in both of these polls Trump has fervent support among his supporters while Biden supporters seem to dislike Trump more than they like Biden.
So if Donald Trump has a secret cache of voters who are not willing to talk to anyone about their support of him, then we might be looking at a second Presidential election cycle where pollsters calling it this early for Biden have egg on their face.
We know how well they accepted that last time.