Apparently, the people least surprised by Democrat Rep. Jasmine Crockett (TX-30) jumping into the Texas Senate race this week are Republicans, and specifically the folks at the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). And that's because they may have secretly led a campaign to convince Crockett to throw her hat into the ring.
If true, it's some seriously tasty and astro-turf-y political intrigue.
According to a source close to the apparent under-the-radar campaign to get Crockett to run, the NRSC decided earlier this year that the congresswoman would be the easiest Democrat to beat and began floating her name. This decision came after a summer meeting at which Texas Democrats Colin Allred, James Talarico, Beto O’Rourke, and Joaquin Castro met to discuss who was the best candidate to take on Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, who is seeking a fifth term. (Cornyn has his own primary worries to consider, but we'll get to that in a minute.)
The NRSC allegedly decided to follow up that Democrat confab by putting out a poll that showed Crockett leading the field.
Crockett leads a hypothetical primary field with 35% of likely Democratic voters, followed by former Democratic Texas Rep. Colin Allred at 20%, former Presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke and Rep. Joaquin Castro tied at 13%. Just 18% of voters said they were undecided about their preferred nominee to challenge Republican Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who is seeking his fifth Senate term.
Other surveys done by the NRSC showed Crockett as the runaway favorite to nab the nomination, so they reportedly took that information and ran with it. "When we saw the results, we were like, ‘OK, we got to disseminate this far and wide,'" a source close to the process revealed. They then decided to “orchestrate the pile on of these polling numbers to really drive that news cycle and that narrative that Jasmine Crockett was surging in Texas."
It worked. Crockett herself commented in her announcement speech, "The more I saw the poll results, I couldn’t ignore the trends that were clear."
DEEPER DIVE: New: Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett Officially Launches U.S. Senate Bid
Crockett's Trainwreck Announcement Underscores Why She's Not Ready for Prime Time
O'Rourke and Castro opted against running, and Allred dropped out this week just hours before Crockett made her announcement (and what an announcement spectacle it was!), deciding instead to run for a House seat. And that leaves state Rep. James Talarico as Crockett's sole challenger in the Democrat Party primary. Talarico has proven to be a pretty good fundraiser, having hauled in a whopping $6.2 million during the first few weeks of his candidacy, but he's likely to get blown out of the water once the Crockett money spigots are turned on.
Meanwhile, Republicans are currently looking at three-man primary race, with Cornyn possibly facing the toughest race of his career as he tries to fend off challenges from Ken Paxton, the sitting Texas attorney general, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (TX-38). Early polling shows Cornyn may be in for the fight of his political life.
More #TXSEN polling from a pro-Hunt group
— Ally Mutnick (@allymutnick) December 8, 2025
Ken Paxton: 33%
Wesley Hunt: 28%
John Cornyn: 27%
Head-to-heads
Hunt (50%) vs Cornyn (35%)
Paxton (44%) vs Cornyn (40%)
Hunt (45%) vs Paxton (39%)
Poll of 800 LVs in early Dec by Jim McLaughlin
Full memo here: https://t.co/uJ6PFGzEs5 pic.twitter.com/9MEIfITyRm
Now, the NRSC's Crockett gambit could be seen as risky, but it's likely to pay off in a place like Texas where progressive darlings don't always play well. But, progressive candidates are going to be all the rage in 2026 – and voters have shown in 2025 that they'll happily vote for the wackiest, most vile candidates out there (see: Jay Jones in Virginia) – so the right should proceed as is every unserious Democrat candidate is the next AOC in the making.
The Republican and Democrat primaries will take place March 3, 2026, so the next few months will be interesting.
Editor’s Note: The Democrat Party has never been less popular as voters reject its globalist agenda.
Help us continue exposing Democrats' plans to lead America down a dangerous path. Join RedState VIP and use promo code FIGHT to get 60% off your membership.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member