Cuba's national energy grid suffered a total collapse Monday, creating an island-wide blackout. Cuba is no stranger to power outages. Just a week ago, the Western half of the island was hit with a power outage, leaving millions without electricity. A year ago, Havana and Western Cuba were also hit with a power outage. In October 2024, the whole island was without power for a couple of days as one of its power plants "failed." The blackout is different. It takes place in the context of Cuba's primary allies being unable to assist, of the U.S. controlling energy supplies to Cuba, and an American president who, unlike decades of predecessors who were happy to let Cuba foment violence in Latin America and the Caribbean and act as proxies in parts of Africa, is dead set on driving the current communist government from power.
The last four months have been disastrous for Cuba as Latin America adjusted to firm actions by President Trump to strengthen U.S. diplomacy there. In November, Peru declared the Cuban ambassador persona non grata and sent him packing for election interference and using the Cuban embassy for subversive activities. A week ago, Ecuador did the same for similar reasons. The close friendship between Trump and Argentina's Milei, and the recent landslide election of Jose Antonio Kast in Chile, have left Cuba isolated in the region.
Of course, nothing more isolated Cuba than the brilliant coup on January 3 when Maduro was dragged out of bed and bundled off to a federal jail in Manhattan; see Trump Announces Venezuelan Leader Nicolas Maduro and His Wife Captured Following ‘Large Scale’ US Strike – RedState.This eliminated Cuba's most significant patron in Latin America and about 60 percent of its fuel for power generation. Under U.S. pressure, Mexico, under American pressure, followed suit in February and suspended shipments of oil to Cuba.
The commies in Havana were bright enough to see the writing on the wall and have been frantically trying to make a deal.
BACKGROUND
Cuban Leader Makes Stunning Statement About Negotiations With US – RedState
Cuban officials complained that no oil has arrived in three months, and while Cuba does produce some oil and has a small investment in "renewables," the lack of oil from Venezuela is causing huge problems. But their biggest problem may not be a lack of oil. A catastrophic fire at Cuba's largest oil refinery calls into question its ability to use oil at all.
🇨🇺 | URGENTE — Se está incendiando en estos momentos la refinería Ñico Lopez en La Habana, la más grande y antigua de Cuba.
— Agustín Antonetti (@agusantonetti) February 13, 2026
Este era el punto de descarga del petróleo enviado por México. Tiene un nivel de importancia crítico.
Se acaba todo, amigos. El fin se acerca. pic.twitter.com/rzkRKHh7y3
And the source of this blackout is not a lack of oil; it is aging, decrepit, and poorly maintained infrastructure.
But let's look at some of the other things going on.
In February, Cuban border troops fired on a speedboat registered in Florida. The small craft was overloaded with people and weapons. Now the Cuban government has invited the FBI to visit Cuba as part of its investigation. This would have been unthinkable only a year ago.
This "charm offensive" has another component. Cuba announced it is willing to let Cubans nationals in America and American companies invest in Cuba.
Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, Cuba's deputy prime minister, said that a "blockade" by the United States is hampering these efforts as the island grapples with an energy crisis, rare violent protests and public pressure from the Trump administration.
“Cuba is open to having a fluid commercial relationship with U.S. companies" and "also with Cubans residing in the United States and their descendants," Fraga said in a sit-down in Havana, ahead of announcing the news to his country Monday night.
The interview, his first, comes as Fraga tries to breathe life into Cuba's ailing economy with a series of economic reforms aimed at creating what he called a “dynamic business environment.” The aim would be to revive a range of sectors, from tourism and mining to fixing and updating the antiquated power grid.
Like Maduro before him and like the Iranian government, Cuba's government seems to be trying to run the old "rope-a-dope" on Trump. They are offering minor concessions and hoping to outlast Trump. At this point, I'd think that just about anyone would know that is not a great bet and an even worse evolutionary strategy.
Reporter: “When you say Cuba is next... Will that look more like Iran or Venezuela?”
— RedWave Press (@RedWavePress) March 16, 2026
President Trump: “I can’t tell you that. I can tell you they’re talking to us. It’s a failed nation… It's a beautiful island… I do believe I’ll… have the honor of TAKING Cuba... In some form… pic.twitter.com/7VST8aoCF3
Reporter: “When you say Cuba is next... Will that look more like Iran or Venezuela?”
President Trump: “I can’t tell you that. I can tell you they’re talking to us. It’s a failed nation… It's a beautiful island… I do believe I’ll… have the honor of TAKING Cuba... In some form yeah. Taking Cuba. Whether I free it, take it — I think can do anything I want with it if you want to know the truth.” “They're a very weakened nation.”
As an incentive, it seems like the administration is giving the Cuban government a literal "get-out-of-jail-free" card.
Exclusive: The Justice Department has formed a working group to examine possible federal charges against officials or entities within Cuba’s government.
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) March 6, 2026
The effort comes as President Trump says the island’s government is his next target. https://t.co/XepNgyhxOG
The Cuba prosecution effort could, in part, follow the model the administration used to remove Maduro from power. The Justice Department indicted Maduro in 2020, although the leader was not extradited at the time. In January, the administration launched an attack on Venezuela, capturing Maduro and bringing him to New York to face charges.
Looking at growing riots, a dead economy, and a collapsed power grid, Cuba's leaders could decide that asking for political asylum in Miami (joke, that's a joke) is a better option than life in a federal prison.
As my friend Andrew Malcom noted, the campaign on Cuba is bigger than a Caribbean island; see If You're Only Watching the Iran War, You're Missing Trump's Larger Strategy – RedState. China has been tossed out of the Panama Canal. They are staring at eviction from a massive $3.5 billion Peruvian port complex built by China under the Belt and Road Initiative because of U.S. pressure. If they are turfed out of Cuba, they lose their premier listening post in the Western Hemisphere.
Allow me to translate, China doesn’t want to lose their spy base in Cuba. https://t.co/PecF3GEelN pic.twitter.com/coa9jEymdi
— Denise Wu (@denisewu) January 27, 2026
Cuba is on borrowed time. As President Trump said on Air Force One earlier in the week:
🚨 TRUMP: “Cuba also wants to make a deal and I think we will pretty soon, either make a deal or do whatever we have to do … but we're going to do Iran before Cuba.” pic.twitter.com/N6df9ttPGL
— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) March 16, 2026
Cuba also wants to make a deal, and I think we will pretty soon either make a deal or do whatever we have to do, We're talking to Cuba, but we're going to do Iran before Cuba.
For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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