During the first hour of Operation Epic Fury, Iran's Islamic government was obliterated. An Israeli airstrike struck a leadership meeting at Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's compound in Tehran around 8 a.m. (Tehran time) on February 28. Not only was Khameini killed, but the casualty list included about 40 other senior officials who could reasonably be in the line of succession. In fact, it seems as though the mullahs have elected one of the victims of the airstrike, Mojtaba Khamenei, as their Grand Poohbah. He hasn't been seen (White House Trolls Iran As Regime Tries to Hide ‘Supreme Leader’ Condition – RedState) because he is reportedly unconscious or semiconscious in a Tehran hospital, with an amputated leg and severe internal injuries. Did I mention he's in a hospital in Tehran, too? Other reports say he is deceased and was elected to give the impression of continuity, but leaving the government flexibility to choose a new leader downstream.
Reports are emerging that the ruling clerical clique may have decamped for Mashhad. What follows is speculation, but it is based on sources that I've found to be very reliable in the past.
A major mystery over the past few days has been the exact location where regime officials are giving interviews to state TV.
— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) March 11, 2026
The Iranian account @Merida2NAJ accurately identified the site as the Mashhad branch of the regime's Foreign Ministry 👇 pic.twitter.com/xCapy73uWa
The premise makes sense. Allied aircraft have relentlessly hunted down individual members of the regime, but the regime has to give the illusion of normalcy to remain in power. A congregation of leaders in Tehran will be quickly located by electronic, cyber, and human assets and demolished.
The regime's top brass seems to have decamped to the distant city of Mashhad, as far away from the US bases and carriers—and from Israel—as you can get without actually fleeing to Afghanistan. They have abandoned the capital. https://t.co/xkXk2KHe23 pic.twitter.com/tcIExBPCGs
— Saul Sadka (@Saul_Sadka) March 11, 2026
Mashhad seems relatively loyal to the mullahs.
In Mashhad only the airport has been hit twice.The regime has become bolder. Every night from ~8pm to midnight they blast “Haider-Haider.” Checkpoints are back, phones searched, hijab patrols threatening people. Cafés forced to close early. Streets blocked for regime ceremonies https://t.co/z0ap44EuMH
— Zahra Maghami (@yas52467946) March 12, 2026
By moving nearly to Afghanistan, they will have created something of a safe distance, at least mentally, from the center of operations.
Imagine if we still had Bagram Airfield https://t.co/nEatEkEQQF pic.twitter.com/Yt8ZIps1Jj
— Shaun Maguire (@shaunmmaguire) March 11, 2026
As an aside, the Iranian government looks like it is trying to "Maduro-proof" itself by blocking the runway at Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran.
🚨 Breaking: The regime has blocked all the runways of Mehrabad Airport with cars, fearing that US or Israeli planes would land with special forces pic.twitter.com/aLEHAFyZPS
— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) March 11, 2026
Any strike into Iran, whether to capture the government or bring out Iran's stock of enriched uranium, is going to require an airport takedown involving airborne and air-landed troops (think Point Salinas Airfield in Grenada). Because getting in is easy, getting out is hard.
However, there ain't no such thing as a free lunch. By moving out of Tehran, they are leaving communications channels that have been in place for years. They can give speeches from Mashhad, but they can't control anything or really comprehend what is happening. As the old saying goes, nature abhors a vacuum, and I would expect the IRGC to move rapidly to fill that void. A move by the IRGC to become the Iranian government is going to open a lot of fissures in the regime that so many otherwise midwit people are claiming will never fall.
By evacuating to safety and leaving the IRGC to take the pain, the mullahs have given up the last shreds of their legitimacy. If this war does not result in a popular uprising, and I think the voices that are sniveling that there is no revolt two weeks into this operation by a population that has been brutalized and cowed for going on three generations are either dishonest or wildly out of touch with human nature, there is no role in a future Iran for its clerics other than as a figurehead.
For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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